Many people see this war as merely the first war in the new Aegis Soverignty System, a war that was started to generate content for the individuals involved. While this is partially true, the war quickly escalated into so much more, a war to answer the question of who would be the apex Russian group from here on out. Since the fall of the original Drone Region Federation in 2012, Stainwagon has been considered the most powerful Russian group in all of null-sec with Geminate Coalition trailing far behind. This began to change late in 2014 though when Geminate Coalition rapidly expanded to encompass all of the DroneLands and especially when halfway through 2015 Legion of xXDEATHXx, Triumvirate. and Solar Fleet came together to recreate the Drone Region Federation. Stainwagon did not deploy with the line of ‘we fully commit to this war; none of our sov matters’ merely to repay Red Alliance for their brief, and largely inconsequential, assistance during the Halloween War, they did so because Stainwagon wished to maintain their position at the top of the Russian ladder. This resulted in a war that took place across 4 months, involved 10,000s of capsuleers, destroyed over 2 trillion isk, and forever changed the socio-political map of Russian politics in EVE. This is the Insmother war.
This was a 2 sided war with the defenders being the Red Menace Coalition [RMC] (later joined by the Stainwagon coalition [SW], Phoebe Freeport Republic [PFR] and Mercenary Coalition [MC] (though only for a week)) and the attackers initially comprising of Triumvirate. [TRI] with their allies in the Vanguard coalition which later included all of the Drone Region Federation [DRF], supported occasionally by Northern Coalition. [NC] and Pandemic Legion [PL]. The Initiative. [INIT] were also occasionally spotted fighting for RMC’s side, initially they were a major help to RMC, however as the war went on The Initiative. participation began to dwindle due to increasing timezone issues and other entities occupying more and more of The Initiative’s time in Curse.
The Red Menace Coalition is primarily based around the region of Insmother (where most of the coalition lives) and Detorid (where Dream Fleet live) along with significant holdings in Wicked Creek. The Red Menace Coalition was born post-Phoebe when The Gorgon Empire, The Initiative., Dream Fleet and Red Alliance invaded the South-East which saw the entire South-East (except some of Detorid) fall under their influence. While The Initiative. never had sov ambitions in the south and The Gorgon Empire preferred to go it alone, Dream Fleet and Red Alliance continued their friendship building a coalition around it; the Red Menace Coalition.
During the peak of the war, RMC numbered roughly 4,500 with just over 2,500 of those being Russian. The main alliances in RMC were the Russian alliances Red Alliance and Dream Fleet and supplied the most manpower during Russian and European time zones. Despite the time difference they often made up a significant portion of fleets during US time zone fights. RMC also had quite a few smaller alliances such as IOC, LUX, BLUE, NAGA, HADES and MI22 who helped supplement RMC numbers during European and US time zones.
Red Menace Coalition territory at the start of the war.
The Drone Region Federation is a coalition that is made up of 2 coalitions and a significant renter wing. The Drone Russian Federation is the revival of a coalition born in 2011 which originally comprising some of the major Russian entities including Legion of xXDEATHXx, SOLAR Fleet and Red Alliance. The coalition eventually fell due to infighting between XiX and Solar in late 2011 which resulted in 4 years of war between the 2 entities. However when Triumvirate invaded the Drone Lands, (with assistance from Solar Fleet and their Vanguard coalition,) early in 2015 a 4 month war ensured that would see Solar and XiX finally come to peace. With peace declared between the 2 coalitions a deal was struck and the 2 coalitions came together to form the Drone Region Federation; the 2nd largest coalition in the game containing over 20,000 players.
The current iteration of the DRF is a merging of two coalitions. Both of whom retain individual identity despite being part of a larger entity. The Vanguard Coalition comprises of primarily Triumvirate., Hell’s Pirates and various smaller alliances such as Stella Nova, The Blood Covenant and Intrepid Crossing. Solar use to be a part of Vanguard however since the creation of DRF they have slowly drifted away from Vanguard and now largely do their own thing. Vanguard are primarily English speaking and inhabit the regions of Etherium Reach, Outer Passage and The Spire. The other half of DRF contains members of the old Geminate Coalition [GemiCo]. The Geminate Coalition was formed in April 2013 when Legion of xXDEATHXx moved to Geminate, by invitation of the CFC, after being evicted from the Drone Lands by Solar Fleet. The Geminate Coalition primarily comprises of Russian entities such as Legion of xXDEATHXx, Infinity Space. and Hard Alliance however it also has English speaking members such as Advent of Fate, ROC. and Brothers of the Dark Sun.
GemiCo numbers have mostly remained stable throughout the war while Vanguard numbers have gone up and down significantly. At the start of the war Triumvirate numbered roughly 1500 pilots. But they lost 2/3rd’s of this number largely due to a number of corporations departing at the beginning of the campaign due to a wide variety of issues. Some of which centred around the controversial decision to make peace with GemiCo in the summer of 2015. At the start of the campaign Vanguard recruited an additional alliance in the form of Stella Nova who helped bolster their numbers again.
The Drone Region Federation Territory before the war.
In the summer of 2015, after Vanguard and GemiCo had made peace, Triumvirate. began poking their head into Insmother in order to generate content for it’s members. Red Alliance responded by reinforcing much of The Spire, which prompted Triumvirate to reinforce most of Insmother. But fighting was difficult due to the time zone differences between Russian and US Alliances and mass entosising stopped. Keep in mind this was before the implementation of node regeneration, so an estimated 200 man-hours were spent defending what had been entosised over 2 nights with little to no actual combat.
Red Menace went back to Insmother to fight Test Alliance Please Ignore over moons in Wicked Creek. The Vanguard coalition eventually went on the offensive during September targeting moons in Northern Insmother. However they quickly overwhelmed the local inhabitants; an alliance called Nerfed Alliance Go Away [NAGA]. NAGA are a US timezone alliance and so set their timers as such. Without a strong US timezone Russian RMC were hamstrung.
After several weeks of fighting over moons in Northern Insmother Vanguard found itself in a very favourable position as money moon after money moon fell under their control. However it should be noted that in many cases these victories were costly to both sides involved such as the battle in PT- on the 30th of September that saw 74b isk destroyed.
It was at the battle of YPW- on the 12th of October that the war really began to swing in favour of Vanguard. By this point much of the fighting over moons were taking place during Russian prime time, and so Vanguard would call upon GemiCo to assist them. This prompted RMC to call upon their friends in the Stainwagon coalition in order to even out the numbers. This was first time in the war that Stainwagon came in force to assist RMC as they were usually busy fighting the Borderlands Coalition in Tenerifis and Immensea. Despite DRF and RMC+SW numbers being relatively even (roughly 400 each side) it was an abysmal defeat for RMC who lost over 610b isk. This is largely due to PL and NC joining the fight via wormholes on DRF’s side. Their Ishtar and Tech 3 fleets tipped the balance of power firmly into DRF’s favour. Following the battle of YPW- RMC stoped contesting a lot of the POS timers, so Vanguard then began hitting sovereignty in an attempt to ‘force fights’ out of RMC.
After a series of bloody brawls with inconclusive winners, sovereignty was slowly wrangled off RMC forces in Northern Insmother. It was at this point that several of the smaller alliances in RMC either departed (such as NAGA and IOC) or crumbled (such as BLUE and LUX). The most dramatic departure from RMC was an alliance called ‘Hell’s Pirates’ who had been invited into RMC during Spring-time in order to bolster USTZ numbers. Seeing the writing on the wall, Hell’s Pirates swapped sides and joined the Vanguard Coalition. In exchange they received sovereignty in Etherium Reach much to RMC’s dismay.
Eventually, after a couple of weeks of intense fighting, all that remained was RMC Russian time zone held space and Vanguard’s US time zone held space. This made fighting extremely awkward between the two and so Vanguard called upon GemiCo to help them fight RMC during the Russian time zone.
When TEST moved into the area in March, several months of bloody moon fighting followed between them and RMC. While TEST managed to claim the vast majority of money moons in Wicked Creek, RMC still held onto a few thanks to a stalemate that had developed over the summer months. Sensing blood in the water after recent RMC losses TEST decided to reinvigorate their offensive against RMC by attacking moons in Wicked Creek and later Detorid. Starting in November and continuing to this day, TEST began to target and destroy money moons owned in particular by Dream Fleet. Heavy fighting occurred over a couple of moons, especially over GRHS-B on the 26th of November. Thanks to help from Pandemic Legion, TEST was able to secure the moon but at a cost of 15b. RMC lost 25b in what should be considered a lucky break given that they were moments away from losing half a dozen supercarriers to Pandemic Legion interdictors.
As the war over moons in Wicked Creek continued, RMC began to contest less and less of them. Their attention and wallets had to be focused on the fight for Insmother. This allowed TEST to take almost all of the valuable moons in Wicked Creek. In a surprising move to many, TEST reinforced the system of 3-LJW3 in Detorid which was seen as a violation of a NIP that GCLUB and RMC had signed many months before. But both RMC and TEST admit that upon further consideration the NIP died when GCLUB died. TEST decided not to follow through with their reinforcement of 3-L and instead preferred to focus on other objectives in Wicked Creek. As a result almost all of TEST’s actions in Detorid revolved around moon-warfare. In the system of ZLO3-V TEST lost 4 dreads and 15b isk attempting to take a money moon from RMC. Due to Insmother being consumed in flames RMC was defending Detorid far more fervently than they defended Wicked Creek, it was the only safe region left for RMC.
The end to the POS-warfare came on the 3rd of December when RMC lost 10b isk defending an R64 in GGE- (in Wicked Creek) from TEST, DRF and PL. After this defeat RMC stopped defending their moon assets in Wicked Creek and instead began to focus all their attention on the war in Insmother.
Somewhat coincidentally the same time DRF began to deploy in full force to help Vanguard, Stainwagon found itself in a position to deploy in full force to help Red Menace. Mid way through October Gentlemen’s. Club announced they would be restructuring and leaving null-sec. This removed them and their coalition (The Borderlands Syndicate) from the sov map thus allowing Stainwagon to add another 3 regions to it’s holdings. More importantly it removed any serious threat to their sovereignty over the entire south (bar Provi-bloc). With their space and moons safe, Stainwagon could deploy in full force to C-J in Insmother and assist RMC. Despite Stainwagon leadership calling for a full commitment to the war, Stainwagon’s participation was lacking to say the least, especially from non Soviet-Union alliances.
With Stainwagon and DRF now deployed in Insmother a series of very costly battles occurred. DRF won the strategic objectives more often then not despite no side winning out in the ISK war. One such example is the battle over a CSSA in 9OLQ-6 on the 20th of October which saw 180b isk destroyed. While RMC were able to save the CSSA it cost them 86b to do so, including half a dozen triage carriers. But the DRF had the wealth all ten Drone Lands to draw upon and RMC’s resources were quickly drying up. Red Alliance’s moons were quickly being conquered in Insmother and with it’s few viable ratting systems being camped the alliance quickly found itself running out of isk. So while DRF could lose Machariel fleets and afford to SRP them, the same could not be said of RMC who had to start phasing in more and more Typhoon fleets instead of Tengu/Machariel fleets as the large, and costly, battles kept rolling in. This gave DRF a significant advantage. Despite RMC+SW forces often matching number they found the Cerberus / Typhoons fleets were being out gunned by the DRF Machariels. One example of the extreme inferiority of Tech 1 Battleship doctrines in comparison to Pirate Battleship doctrines is the battle of RERZ-L. On the 25th of October RMC forces (backed up by NC commanded by an old RA member) roughly equaled the DRF forces yet lost 26b while only killing 2.5b and ultimately lost the strategic objective.
In the final days of October and going into November RMC and SW suffered a series of crushing defeats which cost them 100s of billions and large portions of their moon/sov holdings. It was clear that RMC was beginning to really struggle to keep up in the war. They increasingly used cheaper Typhoon fleets with less and less pilots. DRF forces bled numbers at a slower rate and kept their pilots flying pirate battleships. An important thing to note is that while DRF SRPs many subcapital ships, RMC does not thus explaining why RMC began to bleed pilots at a faster rate. On the 31st of October a pair of battles occurred in the systems of I-1QKL and RZ-TI6. RMC were got decimated despite outnumbering DRF forces, this was the final nail in the coffin and the RMC offense ground to a halt. They instead focused their attention entirely on defensive operations. They took the ‘blueball or kitey’ approach in an attempt to stop the stream of devastating losses losses that only further drained ISK. This would lead the DRF to grow increasingly frustrated and target the one system they knew would force RMC out of their shell; C-J6MT.
While the vast majority of the war took place in Insmother, there was some action in Scalding Pass that had some consequences on the rest of the war. The conflict in Scalding Pass largely revolved around the Advent of Fate [CORD] (referred to as AoF) vs. Phoebe Freeport Republic [PFR] war. Starting in September AoF deployed to Scalding Pass and took the JLO- station off of THE Corvos (who had semi-died in recent weeks). Using this as a staging point, AoF sought out good fights from PFR in their deployment. Initially PFR outnumbered AoF during engagements, this meant that occasionally AoF would call upon TRI in an attempt to even the numbers. Advent of Fate is a member of GemiCo, Triumvirate is a member of Vanguard meaning the 2 entities are allied despite a past history of tension. PFR leadership mistook AoF and TRI’s teaming up evidence of DRF’s intention to hurt them. This forced PFR and RMC to closer together as they assisted in defending money moons. The PFR fleets grew with ever increasing number os RMC pilots. This enrage DRF and AoF further as they began to think PFR was falling under the influence/vassalage of RMC.
The fights became less roam orientated and became more strategic fights contesting money moons. This change resulted in PFR numbers slowly dropped from 60+ to 40 at best, but AoF numbers grew and they quickly conquered money moons in PFR space as a result. Eventually AoF secured more moons in PFR space than PFR owned. Eventually PFR began to ‘blueball’ AoF thus denying them of the content they had deployed for.
AoF and PFR got increasingly involved in the war in Insmother, while RA/TRI got increasingly involved in the war in Scalding Pass as the lines between the two theaters began to blur. After several ‘shitposts’ by Walter Cohen (PFR’s leader) on reddit and the PFR forums, AoF made the decision to headshot 4-CM8I thus potentially forcing PFR to retreat back to Curse.
It was around this time that Stainwagon deployed in force to assist RMC in Insmother. AoF and TRI made up the majority of DRF US timezone operations while INFAMOUS made up the majority of SW US timez zone operations an alliance was brokered between them. INAMOUS even donated 20b isk to PFR in order to help keep them in the fight against AoF and promised to help to provide a ship replacement programme for their members. However the ship replacement aid never materialised.
INFAMOUS hired Mercenary Coalition [MC] to help them and PFR in fighting DRF during the USTZ and they deployed to the staging system of 4-C.
PFR held onto 4-CM8I by forming a very impressive 160 man fleet. But it was not without cost as they lost 10b isk and several corporations following the attack. Ultimately the battle resulted in a non-formal truce between PFR and AoF. As this was against against PFR’s pledge INFAMOUS and MC both alliances left 4-C and headed to Curse.
Meanwhile DRF forces took 1V-LI2 (an important logistics station for RMC) in Scalding Pass much to the dismay of GE/RMC/PFR. AoF have since sold their space in Scalding Pass (except the DRF held 1V-) to new Vanguard member ‘IT’S ONLY PIXELS’. GemiCo member ROC proceeded to claim space just west of 1V- thus cementing DRF’s presence in the region for some time to come. While AoF and PFR did sign an official NIP it only took 1 week for Walter Cohen to break it. However hostilities have not yet resumed as both sides are currently on Christmas break we likely will not see any more action in this part of the war until January.
The battle over C-J was a long, bloody and grisly affair that truly paid homage to this legendary system’s past. Primarily C-J is the capital to Insmother and a system of immense importance to not just Red Alliance and Red Menace but all Russians – it was here that Russian identity in eve was forged. Throughout the years trillions of ISK have been lost in a seemingly never ending cycle of Red Alliance losing and conquering the system
On the 6th of November, riding high on a tide of recent victories, DRF reinforced the system of C-J6MT; the timer was set to come out on November the 8th and even before DRF had finished reinforcing the system the various alliances involved had already begun to hype up the fight to their memberships hoping for max numbers. DRF formed up a very impressive 700 ship fleet (with help from NC.) while RMC only managed to form 450. Despite this RMC had the home field advantage. Everyone was ready for an epic brawl, one which they really didn’t receive. While it’s true that 130b was lost over 3 hours with over 1200 pilots involved, the actual experience was gruelling to say the least. RMC quickly discovered they could not fight DRF head on so they decided to abuse the mechanics of Aegis Sov in order to achieve victory. Instead of fighting DRF, RMC and SW avoided a head on confrontation and simply went around headshotting DRF entosis ships including some carriers. The passive regen and quick defensive entosis’ing won them the day despite no major decisive battles occurring.
The second battle over C-J, on the 14th of November, proved to not be much more enjoyable. This time DRF formed up 500 while RMC formed 400. However DRF had the assistance of PL thus tipping the balance of power well in their favour. Once again RMC found themselves unable to overcome the numerical and ship-class advantage DRF had and so RMC went to hitting entosis ships. However DRF had learned from their mistakes and had fitted their entosis carriers with max tank as well as deploying bubbles around the node grids. This allowed them to slowly whittle down RMC’s fleet and proved to be quite effective. While RA was able to save the station it lost the IHUB timer. An astounding 200b isk was killed in this fight with RMC/SW taking the brunt of the losses. What makes this even more impressive is that the 200b lost was almost entirely subcapital losses.
The third battle over C-J, on the 15th of November was over the TCU and was a decisive victory for DRF who were supported by NC and PL. RMC and SW formed up a 350 man Tengu fleet while DRF/NC/PL formed up a 500 man Machariel/T3/Ishtar fleet that managed to repeatedly force RMC off field and eventually camped into station/staging POS. So DRF won the battle quite quickly and dealt 65b of damage to RMC while only sustaining losses valued at 35b. By this point both the TCU and IHUB were under XiX control. The call was made by RMC and SW leadership to evac all assets from C-J and move to the secondary staging system of SHBF-V 3 jumps away. Immediately DRF spies picked up on the intel and reinforced SHBF thus denying RMC a safe haven to regroup.
The 4th battle over C-J on the 16th of November saw in a surprising turn of event putting DRF on the defensive. RMC had reinforced both the TCU and IHUB as soon as they were placed down in the prior days and so a fight occurred over the 2 structures. The IHUB is particularly important in FozzieSov as it provides ADMs which massively assist the defender of a system. Once again DRF had the numerical advantage at 350 against RMC’s 300. But as with previous days the numerical gap between the 2 entities was slowly lowering much to RMC’s benefit. RMC were able to destroy DRF’s IHUB by utilizing an interceptor fleet to gain constellation control while their Tengu fleet kept the DRF and PL forces occupied in C-J. RMC however were unable to hold the field in C-J and DRF were able to immediately anchor another IHUB. The fight proved to once again be costly for RMC as they took 50b of losses while DRF/PL sustained 15b in losses.
After several days of quiet, XiX focused on other systems in Insmother. The 5th battle occurred over C-J on the 20th of November, this time over the first station timer. Interestingly the timer came out at 0800 ET (1100 Moscow Time) which massively limited the two Russian group’s numbers. Due to an error on INFAMOUS’ part they hunted entosis ships in their T3 fleet instead of assisting RMC/SW forces on the undock of C-J thus allowing DRF to gain a massive initial upper hand. INFAMOUS eventually realised their mistake and joined the battle, but it was too late and DRF successfully won both the fight and the strategic objective. With another 35b lost for RMC/SW and C-J now freeported the coalition went into panic-evac mode. DRF responded by doing their best to camp the C-J undock over the 48 hour period. RMC and SW managed to break the blockade several times and moved their evac-trains to SHBF.
With the station freeported and the TCU/IHUB firmly in DRF hands this was the final stand for RMC/SW, the breaking point. Would they hold onto their ancient capital and repel the invaders? Or would they once again lose the capital but in a spectacular fashion? Turns out neither. On the morning of the 22nd of November the 6th and final battle (if you can really call it that) for C-J took place DRF formed an impressive Machariel fleet of 250 (given the time) while RMC struggled to form a 50 man Tengu fleet. being so vastly outnumbered RMC decided to simply abandon the system and do 1 last evac move op to SHBF before the system fell (the smartest decision possible given the circumstances). While RMC did lose several ships on their way out of the system these only added up to 7b isk, nothing in comparison to the epic fights that had happened over this system in the previous weeks.
The battle over C-J was the most important fight in the entire war and over the course of 3 weeks it saw well over 600b isk destroyed and 1000s of pilots from all over New Eden participate. Upon the fall of C-J RMC and Soviet-Union retreated back to SHBF while INFAMOUS (along with hired Mercenary Coalition) left the war instead favouring to fight The Initiative. in Curse (who had been occasionally helping RMC/SW against DRF).
Paisti Syndicate [PSY] is a Finnish alliance mostly built around the ex-TRI corporation of Fistful of Finns and ex-Pizza corporation Pasiti. Because of this they have a long and ferocious history of harassment warfare as well as fighting outnumbered. Upon the alliance being reformed at the end of September it was decided that PSY would hit Etherium Reach and in general the Drone Lands in order to generate content for it’s membership. Initially PSY worked alone harassing renters and ratters in ER and The Kalevala Expanse while basing out of low-sec however as DRF got increasingly involved in the war against RMC in Insmother PSY found itself with the opportunity to cause more havoc. Thus PSY began targeting the key system of LXQ2-T (known as ‘the gateway to the Dronelands’) in Etherium Reach. After several weeks of intense and often bloody battles PSY, thanks to help from RMC and SW, succeeded in taking the system. With control over the station PSY decided to turn the system into a freeport however they set the docking fees to maximum causing the DRF Jump Freighters to either pay 18b to dock, find a way around or lose their Jump Freighter. While many JFs went for the second option, 2 decided to pay the 18b in docking fees while 3 others lost their Jump Freighters netting Paisti 36b in isk and 30b in killmails.
Iit was not long before XiX along with the help of their DRF coalition were able to reclaim LXQT-2. Deciding to go after the renters and weaker alliances in DRF, PSY turned their attentions northward to the region of The Kalevala Expanse and in particular an alliance called Flame Bridge. Flame Bridge quickly crumbled to the near constant harassment from PSY. PSY found themselves owning a constellation in Kalevala which they conquered from XiX. PSY staged out of this constellation for several weeks beginning towards the end of October. The locals in the area quickly wised up and started depriving PSY of content. With RMC’s defeat in Insmother becoming solidified with the loss of C-J and with NC/PL increasingly coming to attack PSY in Kalevala, PSY decided to leave the region and head to Stain in order to seek out good fun from other Russians.
While PSY’s actions did not a dramatic effect on the war they are still worthy to note as they caused significant disruption to the regions of The Kalevala Expanse and Etherium Reach. Over the course of 2 months they provided vital bomber support to RA in some of the most pitched battles of the war.
Following RMC’s eviction from C-J they quickly found themselves on the back foot in SHBF against DRF. DRF relentlessly reinforced the station and forced RMC operations to be focused in the south of Insmother. While RMC was busy trying to protect SHBF and 2 constellations to the south, DRF quickly seized the rest of Insmother in a number of days. With the north of Insmother firmly in control of DRF forces, XiX turned their attention to conquering SHBF and just like C-J, RA made sure everyone involved got a bloody nose.
On the 4th of December the first timer for the station came out for SHBF at 1300. This is a few hours too early for RUTZ and so both sides managed to only form up 100 man fleets each. Both sides favoured to use Machariels. However many RMC pilots nearing broke from months of intensive and costly fighting without SRP had to use Typhoons instead which massively reduced their effectiveness. This proved to be key as despite slightly outnumbering the DRF fleet, RMC lost both the fight and the strategic timer thus putting SHBF into freeport mode and costing them 8b in losses. With SHBF in renforce, another evacuation was called, this time to 0-6VZ5 right on the border to Detorid. However, after a week RMC failed to defend o-6 and moved to DG-8VJ in Detorid. By this point many pilots in both RMC and SW were reaching breaking point. Morale after months of warfare and losses had drained both their wallets and their resolve thus many SW pilots began heading home while RMC participation numbers began to significantly decline.
On the 6th of December the battle over SHBF-V was decided in another big and bloody brawl. Despite being outnumbered by 250 to 150 RMC/SW put up one heck of a fight. Undocking in Bhargests, Machariels and Typhoons. They fought DRF, PL and NC in Machariels, Tengus and Cerberuses over the course of an hour. The fight started out positively for the defending forces however when DRF brought in triage archons their hopes were dashed. Despite RMC’s interceptor squadrons best efforts, DRF forces were able to secure constellation control and thus facing annihilation on grid and having lost the strategic objective the RMC/SW forces bailed and conceded the system. The fight over SHBF certainly was not as big as the fight over C-J. 40b was destroyed and saw RMC/SW’s morale shattered. DRF’s control over Insmother was cemented.
In the 2 weeks since SHBF’s fall the war in Insmother has been very quiet. RMC/SW forces are licking their wounds in Detorid while DRF forces removing the last few POSes and sovereignty-structures. RMC still has control over in Insmother. The only thing of note to happen in the last 2 weeks in Insmother has been the destruction of a Triumvirate. Ragnarok belonging to alliance leader Garst Tyrell after a well executed trap by Pandemic Legion (who recently moved from Delve to Curse) costing Triumvirate 150b isk.
The war has been quiet because of the holidays. Even thou Russians celebrated christmas 2 weeks later than the west it is still considered by many a time to spend with family.
DRF are currently cleaning the region of RMC POSes with only a handful non-money moons left over. DRF have also been wrestling the 3 constellations of sovereignty out of RMC control and spreading it out amongst the various alliances. The DRF know RMC will likely launch a new offensive into Insmother come January and so they’ve already begun preparations for this by moving the alliances of Stella Nova, The Blood Covenant and CCLP into Insmother as well as positioning PIXELS and ROC. nearby in Scalding Pass. Triumvirate have also taken a significant portion of sovereignty in northern Insmother for themselves and intend to base out of this for the foreseeable future. Mostly notably Legion of xXDEATHXx has announced that they will be staging out of C-J indefinitely as no threat remains to their Drone Lands holdings, so they will continue to defend Insmother against the Red Menace Coalition until they are either pushed out or have to go back to the Drone Lands to defend.
With such insurmountable odds one would think that RMC would try to make peace with DRF however RA are known for being immensely stubborn, especially when it comes to their homeland of Insmother, and so likely we are looking at the next great ‘forever Russian war’ this time with RA fighting XiX instead of Solar fighting XiX. Will RMC and SW be able to overcome DRF anytime soon though? The answer is likely; no. Stainwagon recently invited Guardians of the Galaxy [GotG] to move into their regions of Immensea and Tenerifis and so in a few weeks time we will likely see Stainwagon fleets gain several dozen in number, especially in the USTZ and later EUTZ however Vanguard remains a far stronger coalition then GotG and so Stainwagon’s latest influx of pilots will likely not be enough to turn the tides of war in their favour. With PL in curse it has put pressure on all alliances in the south-east as PL are known for 3rd partying fights, killing capitals and being good-friends with XiX (and thus DRF by extension), this means that should DRF ever come under serious threat it is likely that PL will be there to bail them out. There is also the case of Stainwagon forces being split between Stain, Curse and Detorid at the moment which does not make for a very effective war effort.
Despite all these factors being in favour of DRF personally I still see RMC as the most likely victors in this war. For DRF Insmother is but a buffer state, and not a very lucrative one at that, to their homeland of the Drone Lands. But for RMC, and especially Red Alliance, Insmother IS the motherland, it is the region that has come to define Red Alliance over the last decade and I expect most of the pilots of Red Alliance will be ready to commit to fighting over the region for years if needed. Against this fanatical and constant pressure I do not see the smaller, weaker, alliances of DRF holding up and so eventually 1 system at a time Insmother will once again fall under the influence of Red Alliance.