Pandemic Horde is moving to Geminate. As far as we can tell, it is legitimate. This writer will seek to answer three key questions:
There are two reasons why this is happening. Firstly, the parts of Fade, Cloud Ring and Pure Blind that Horde own are quite small. It is easy to dismiss Horde as a newbie only alliance, but they have over 13,000 characters, many of whom are starting to skill up into larger ships. Horde is already struggling to support Vexor Navy Issue ratting in their current space. It is not out of the realms of possibility that within six months carrier ratting will become more common. Therefore, it is only sensible that a move is made.
Secondly, Goonswarm Federation [CONDI] have been harassing Horde quite a lot. Their attack on 9-4 was turned back – but it was hardly a crushing defeat. They have fortified Fountain, and regularly mount roams into Horde space in Cloud Ring. Horde does form to oppose them but lacks the supercapital umbrella to entirely crush roaming gangs. Whilst this writer does not think that Goon harassment is decisive in triggering this move, it might play a part.
This spells good things for Horde. As was outlined on reddit, Geminate is a better place for them in a lot of ways. It has more moons, more space, and fewer annoying bees bumbling around. Moreover, it’s not too far away from the other northern alliances – so if needed, they can call for help.
However, it is not all strictly positive. In their current space, the geopolitical situation is simpler. Bad guys to the south, good guys to the north and east. Geminate does not have this luxury. It is associated with the Drone Region Federation, and residency likely comes packaged with a set of diplomatic preconditions. This could cause headaches for Horde diplomatic staff.
Horde is moving away from Pure Blind, Cloud Ring and Fade. It is very doubtful that they will retain any assets there. This means that another Northern alliances must either occupy former Horde space or install proxies. Anything else is tantamount to handing Goonswarm Federation the entire area of space.
It does not look like there are many suitable proxies. Gallente militia is one possible candidate, and they are unlikely to seriously expand in nullsec, given existing faction warfare interests. We do know that Banderlogs, a ~3000-character alliance, have been permitted a constellation in Pure Blind. However, they lack capital throw-weight – so the key security guarantor will be the near-by Guardians of the Galaxy coalition (GOTG).
If Guardians of the Galaxy become the de facto custodian of the entire north-east, then they will be unable to deploy away effectively. The moment there is a coalition deployment, then the Imperium will get the green light. This might be countered by Northern Coalition. and Pandemic Legion deploying in strength to cover the GOTG absence. However, they probably don’t want to play border guard duty. Therefore, the potential for the GOTG to carry out large-scale offensive operations is seriously reduced.
This may have larger consequences down the road for the security arrangements in the north. But for now, this is how the situation stands. EN24 will be sure to keep you updated as things progress.
