Riverini’s note: As with every other EN24 article, readers are invited to bring their on discerning views against any published EN24 article, today it was Gevlon’s article turn.
First off, let’s address the false dichotomy of null v high sec. We’ll even throw low sec in for some extra flavor. You keep suggesting that people who play in null exclusively confine themselves to null and do not also operate in high sec (and low sec). In fact, CCP has pointed out that a long term problem in Eve has been that null sec players spend quite a bit of time in empire. Mining, manufacturing, buying, selling… the vast bulk of this done by null sec players is done in empire space. It is a risk-reward thing.
Minerals for all of Eve are primarily sourced from high sec. Because it is so easy to move minerals from empire to null, the price of minerals in null is kept low, due to the nearly risk-less mining and hauling. So, the reward for mining in null is not great enough for much of the mineral consumption of null to be from locally sourced mining operations. So, null sec pilots will have an alt or five munching away at some high sec rock, while sitting on a titan in null sec.
Market manipulation is done in the market hubs in high sec. People who manipulate their alliance markets tend not to have an alliance for very long. Production is done as close as you can get to the source of the required resources. Ammo, subcaps, and modules are built primarily in high sec, capitals in low sec (because they can’t be built in high sec), and supers in null (because they can’t be built in low or high sec). All because the minerals come almost exclusively from high sec. So, that’s where the null production alts are building things. They don’t sit in null sec and hope minerals will magically make their way to them.
As for your assertion that only “bad” or “new” players buy PLEX, that is a ridiculous assertion. Real world purchases are made based on a value proposition. This is a min-maxing thing, so I’m not sure why there is confusion over this. For X time, I can gain Y currency or Z in-game currency. Which one you pick depends on what Y and Z are for that individual person. There are also, obviously, costs which decrease the value of Y or Z for a period of X time. Most people can only put in so much of X time and get Y currency. Some people are salary and X becomes meaningless when it comes to Y currency, as it varies (sometimes dramatically). Plus, there are the intangible costs associated with where you are and what you are doing. There are marginal costs and benefits to take into effect. But most of all, comparative advantage is an important calculation when it comes to whether to purchase PLEX with isk or real world currency, or to simply forgo that market entirely.
Because Eve attracts an older, more educated, more affluent population of gamers than most MMOs, comparative advantage is an important factor in the PLEX market. People min-max their time and income to a certain degree. Eve’s PVE content is not nearly engaging enough for many people to enjoy it enough for its own sake, rather than for income sake alone. A significant number of older players purchase PLEX for isk, because they do not feel their time is well spent grinding for isk in Eve, myself included.
As for suicide dreads? This isn’t personal income. That is alliance/bloc level income that comes almost exclusively from renters. However, with the recent closure of multiple rental regions, those days are nearly or already gone. Extravagant fighting styles are no longer sustainable, and that will have an impact on the PLEX market.
As for predictions about the PLEX market, yes, PLEX is here to stay. That isn’t the question people want answered though. The real question is at what price will they sell? With all the coming changes, where will PLEX stabilize? Consumption and production is going to change when jump fatigue hits. The cost to transport minerals from empire to null is going to go up. That will increase mineral prices in null, stabilized by more people starting to mine in null (as the risk-reward proposition improves).
Additionally, there aren’t any new ships nor combat ship rebalancing coming in this next expansion, so people will not likely be adding ships to their hangars en mass. That will decrease demand for currency-to-PLEX-to-isk, decreasing the supply of PLEX in the market. However, average in-game income is about to take a nose dive with the closure of most of the rental regions. That isk faucet is going to be shut off for a while, until null stabilizes to a certain degree and entities begin using the regions again for income purposes.
So, how much will each of these things impact the supply/demand for PLEX? I suspect that demand will fall off more than supply in the coming months. So, I strongly believe the price of PLEX will be decreasing in the near future. I’m not doing some kind of magic calculation to come to this decision; it is more of a gut feeling. However, it is something I’ve already taken action on, as it seems others have as well. The speculation on the part of both sides is enough that the PLEX price is currently stable. However, volume is dropping which is a strong sign that my view of what will happen to PLEX prices is correct.
– Bagehi
