It’s been a while since I’ve done a piece addressing the game in 0.0 and the politics that surround it. To those that have been following my articles for a while now, you’ll know that I don’t write to report. This isn’t a Barbra Walters special. I write to analyze “the game” and offer my thoughts to you, the reader, to consider some things with me. For those that haven’t read my work before, I can be fairly critical, but don’t take it personally. This article will touch upon a variety of issues concerning recent history such as the Halloween War, the new threats for the two major coalitions and of course the political game in the polarized world of 0.0. I see myself as someone watching a chess game between two players. Sometimes I offer advice on a next move, sometimes I may even swipe a piece off the board myself.
While the CFC has been a prominent power in New Eden for several years, its future became uncertain during their “Civil War” as James315 calls it. That of course refers to the CFC’s conquest of Fountain, Delve, Period Basis and Querious from TEST Alliance and allies such as Tribal Band. That uncertainty was swept away with the CFC’s expanding its borders all the way to the edge of Catch and Stain. However, this was not done without adding even more bad blood between itself and the N3 coalition. In the wake of the southern war, the CFC decided to join against N3/PL as an “honorable third party” and “return the favor.” The CFC’s progress has been a combination of good planning, superb logistics and dumb luck. Their moves on the board aren’t anything to really be amazed about, but they’re still better than what others are doing which in the world of Eve is all you need.
With their vast renting empires, N3PL had accumulating a level of wealth which would make King Midas jealous. While not all political situations are a zero sum game, in this case the CFC could have considered it as such. Every dime that N3PL put in their coffers was another bullet the CFC would have to worry about in the future. The CFC’s choice to support Solar, -A-, Black Legion others, collectively becoming known as “RUSRUS” or “DTF Coalition” was a move that added a buffer between it and the growing power of N3PL. In effect, the CFC would use “DTF” as a buffer while harming N3/PL with minimal risk to their own particular assets.
N3/PL themselves had little to gain from such a war. The vast amount of territory they held in the east was more than enough to keep them rich. At the same time, alliances like DARKNESS and -A- also had little to gain either having enough of their own territory or having just re-established themselves recently. So what was the reason for the war? Who had the most to gain and the least to lose? The CFC? The answer might surprise you.
Solar curently holds a little bit of territory in Querious. Being marginally aligned/friendly with the CFC, the two have an interesting relationship. In the past, Solar held vast territories in the east, akin to PL’s own Brothers of Tengra renter alliance. It was once thought that the Goons would own all of the west and the Russians all of the east. The two entities fought against the Dotbros (NCdot, BLdot and S2N) during the Tribute War and have shared a fairly good relationship.When N3/PL invaded the east taking the regions from Solar, the CFC offered only token help in the form of FA and RZR. Their participation and effectiveness in the east were subject to ridicule memes such as “Failzor” and other slights from PL. Suffice to say, the CFC did not put as much effort in helping Solar as they may have liked.
Fast forward to October of 2013, it was Solar that really beat the war drum because their goal was to retake their vast eastern empire they once held. While DARKNESS, -A- and company would have been comfortable with what they had, Solar had the most to gain from this war. Unfortunately DTF’s failure to obtain their victory, has left their coalition destroyed with portions of the Russians joining N3 or reaching agreements favorable to them.
The war was somewhat bitter sweet for the CFC. The sweet side was frustrating N3/PL’s advance into the south, the victory at B-R, and of course their deadzone/hell camp of N3’s retreat system. The bitter part is despite these great trophies that the CFC can bring back and put on their table, despite N3/PL’s loss at B-R, they’ve still won the war. N3/PL managed to lose the most expensive battle in Eve yet somehow still obtain their goals and expand territory. That is not to say the CFC lost. The Halloween War had two victors, the CFC and N3/PL and one loser, DTF. The Botlord agreements was yet another “sweet” aspect of the war for the CFC. They managed to secure their holdings from any serious PL offensive for the time being. Negotiating with PL on these terms has also effectively forced the very same terms on the rest of N3 without providing N3 the perks PL gets. It’s highly unlikely that N3 would threaten CFC holdings in any meaningful manner without the backing of PL. On top of that when an ally negotiates with an enemy individually, there can be no question there is a level of distrust automatically injected between the two parties.
The fallout of the last war has also earned the CFC a variety of “small threats.” The same way “the game changed” after the fall of the Soviet Union, and the main concern wasn’t big armies smashing into each other, but small dedicated groups that can punch above their weight class, the major coalitions now have to look out for these small groups. A prime example of this would be entities such as Black Legion, Mordus Angel, Triumvirate and Pasta Syndicate. They have been effective at challenging the CFC in a variety of engagements. With numbers ranging from 10 to 100, these groups have destroyed renter’s ratting carriers as well as standing fleets of equal or greater size.
However, not everything has been going perfectly for these small groups. Most recently BL saw many of their assets in the north obtained by CFC forces prompting their deployment to Derelik. This caused internal friction within the alliance and saw some notable departures. BL may not be down and out yet but it is clear that they cannot fight the CFC in set piece battles.
The new threats for these large coalitions will be aimed against their source of wealth, specifically their renters. The same way today we aren’t as concerned about a major country rolling tanks into our backyard, but rather small terrorist groups aiming to do harm to soft targets, is the same way the CFC and N3/PL will have to view the future of New Eden.
Sion Kumitomo wrote a wonderful piece on the other site concerning the meta of Eve. As Chief of Staff and Head Diplomat for the GSF he provides a wonderful insight on some issues. One of the concerns is that 0.0 is becoming polarized. Some people see this as “proof of broken game mechanics” and while the sov mechanics are out dated, a polarized context is the next step which I see for Eve. That’s not to say everyone will blue up and do nothing. Human nature is so that there will always be conflict. I’ve been hearing about how Eve is dying and everyone will blue up and be nullbears since I made this character in 2011. Some three years later with scores of conflicts and wars erupting throughout, I don’t think that is the case.
I’d invite Sion and any coalition member in leadership to consider the “small threat” issue as “the main problem” rather than just a side thing. I believe I’m preaching to the choir however as Mittens has done quite a few CEO updates addressing some of the aforementioned parties. The situation is a bit of a catch 22 as addressing them informs the CFC line member of their threat yet at the same time may act as a morale booster for the smaller groups.
Particular attention should be paid by both sides concerning the development of the south. I don’t suspect that either the CFC or PL think that their treaty will be ever lasting. They are as two boxers simply clinching and biding their time for an opportunity to strike. There are a variety of “small wars” being fought on various levels aside from conventional sort. There is a game of winning “hearts and minds” among groups such as BNI and Hero Coalition. During the Halloween War we saw different sides trying to sway or shove HERO Coalition into different directions.
The two sides should further consider the influence of other smaller entities that operate within NPC null and lowsec. Areas like Curse, Delve and Aridia can act as bridgeheads into surrounding areas of 0.0. Each NPC/lowsec region is a distinct eco system of different groups with their own particular history and perspective.. While not up to the level of structural organization that the larger 0.0 coalitions have maintained, these sort of “tribal” groups play an important role in the greater 0.0 dynamic.
This Spring/Summer is likely to bring out new conflicts, perhaps not on the scale of which this past winter has seen (Less TiDi at least) but certainly important as the super powers try to get any edge they can against their rivals. South western regions such as Delve and Stain should be watched closely as they form to be the pivot point between the CFC and N3. The development of HERO Coalition is likewise going to influence the balance of power within New Eden.
Most importantly, the side that wins will be the one that will be able to maintain its coalition’s structural integrity. In that respect some would say the CFC has a large advantage with there being one distinct leader. N3/PL has no official top leader to look to but each alliance leader is a persona on his own. Others may say that such a system empowers coalition members as partners, rather than subjects. The on going conflict is about more than just territory and killboards. It will also give us an idea of which system of rule is more durable in the end. Results are important as is the method by which they are attained.
– Seraph IX Basarab
