Setting up a decoy can be an extremely powerful strategy in any form of warfare. It can draw an enemy’s strength where it is not needed, and leave openings of weakness for one to exploit. It can cause the enemy to over extend supplies or trade losses poorly. It can also be demoralizing and put heavy strain on logistics. The current war has seen both sides employ this strategy with varying success. Let us take a look at the different ways the strategy has been approached and who if anyone has benefited from it.
The first to carry out any major operation in the north had been taken up by Gentlemen’s Agreement of the CFC against N3’s renter holdings in Kavela Expanse. They mostly used cov ops assets and other high mobility ships to quickly over run sov holdings in the region. The stated goal was to draw N3 forces from the front line down south against DTF and CFC allies and weaken them there. Unfortunately for them Insidious Empire (EMP) was quick to react and undid much of their all of the progress they had made in a fraction of the time it took GENTS to take whatever they did. The DTF/CFC forces in the south failed to make any meaningful gains in the south and instead emboldened EMP.
GENTS claimed victory in the fact that they drew EMP into grinding sov up north. EMP on the other hand stated that they never really intended to fully deploy in the south and preferred fighting smaller sized battles up north. From the recorded meeting it seemed like the GENTS side of things didn’t sound as pleased with what they had done as their leadership would have liked. Their contribution may have been more meaningful had there been a focused southern offensive with some progress. Instead they managed to burn out their membership and give EMP something to brag about.
With GENTS being beaten back and having lost a station on their side of the front, EMP had teamed up with TEST and swore to invade Vale of the Silent. Now on the defensive, GENTS were provided support from their coalition, the CFC to hold off the offensive. Unfortunately for TEST and EMP there seemed to be some historically bad blood with certain directors in EMP having taken assets from TEST when they departed. Suffice to say, it’s poor planning to invade a new region when your troops own side is in opposition to itself.
Instead of EMP and TEST being a unified entity they have provided the CFC with factors that contribute to their morale. It was now their turn to reclaim lost holdings and claim victory. Oh the other side of things EMP and TEST could claim that their attack was merely a diversion, a decoy not unlike GENTS. Perhaps moving the goal posts from their stated intent to invade, EMP/TEST have actually pulled away the majority of the CFC from the south.
These factors can be spun several ways by either side. This may be the CFC’s opportunity to distance themselves from their southern allies of convenience claiming that “sov warfare isn’t fun” and “didn’t want to win in the south anyway” along with “lol bad russians” and that they simply want to defend their territory. “Until CCP fixes Archons and drone mechanics in general, there’s simply no point to engage in an offensive sov war.” CFC exits the war, defends against EMP and TEST, claims victory. Their opposition has given them the perfect opportunity to do that by making big declarations of conquest before anything is sure.
The N3 side of things has handled the northern offensive poorly. Though their initial success was to be admired, their inability to patch up diplomatic issues with TEST has lead to many frustrations and a relief to their enemies. In effect, EMP/TEST have given the CFC a “front they can be proud of.” Before then all they had was their stagnated trench line in the south, now they have a glorious defense of their motherland. A better idea would have been to act more quietly, and simply be more effective at what GENTS did. This way failure can simply be seen as “being no worse than GENTS but actually better” while success would stand on its own merits. War is played in the mind as much as it is on the field.
Anyone that’s even marginally competent in any sort of martial arts, actual martial arts not flowery dancing ballet with paper thin tin sheet swords, will tell you about a simple concept called the “Center line” or your “Gate.” Sitting wherever you are extend your hands out in front of you until your arms are straight. Then place your palms together. You should see an extended triangle before you made from your arms. That is your center line or your gate. If you control that in any fist fight you win.
The concept doesn’t just apply to martial arts but to the world of gaming. One of the best examples I can give of is the original Company of Heroes. In 3 v 3 maps the flanks generally carry the resources on the map while the center usually has minor resource importance or simply a place holding section to grab as territory. Most people force fights on the flanks for the resources. However, with a decent team you can push deeper into the center which the enemy often ignores and set up forward defensive positions. With that acquired you can shift your full team to strike one flank and than the other in 3 v 2 or 3 v 1 fights where is your opponent wants to do the same they have to go around your established forward defensive position in the middle.
A similar concept also works in a more familiar game, dota. Based on top, center and bottom lanes the 5v5 game generally divides with 2 on top and bottom and 1 person in the middle. While you’ll generally see one person start roaming to set up “ganks” more professional teams will use control of the center line (warding and dewarding river and taking out the first tower at mid) to do a similar tactic as mentioned above instigating local numerical superiority.
Napoleon Bonaparte understood the concept of local numerical superiority in his battles as well. While out numbered over all he realized that through mobility he can establish superior numbers in vital places on the battlefield that would allow him victory. Yes the enemy may have more troops over all, but he had more troops on a specific flank or weak point that when pressed would do damage to the enemy structure as a whole.
For those not familiar with the influence sov map I recommend that you use this link.
This war is one of multiple fronts. A northern front around Kavela/Vale, and the southern front in Catch and the surrounding regions. There is also a “Shadow Front” which I may discuss at a later date. N3 has a distinct advantage which they may or may not be aware of in such a multi front war. If they haven’t already, they should set up a jump bridge high way from the northern front to the south. Using the concepts we learned earlier in the article we should know that shifting your full force from right to left and back (north to south and back in our Eve situation) you can have numerical superiority when most needed.
The advantages N3 has is two fold. They can set up a jump bridge network linking their fronts together. Secondly, the CFC being unable to do the same must rely on traveling the whole of Empire space to reinforce one front and than the other. High Sec mercenaries, while often ridiculed for not being “real pvpers” whatever that is suppose to mean, become invaluable assets in this scenario as they can lock down trade hub regions and harass the logistical chain of the CFC. While using out of corp characters to transport supplies sounds like an obvious remedy, in practice this becomes tedious and judging by the number of high sec hauler assets lost it doesn’t seem to be a stream lined alternative.
As such N3 could in fact put its full force in the south one night and then in the north the next. Does this not mean all of N3 needs to pile up into one system, but can attack multiple systems on the same front. Neither side really needs to move the battle line all that much in order to win. It isn’t as if every single system under possession is going to be the sight of a major battle. You only need to put enough strain on the other side’s logistics and morale in order to cause internal conflict.
Signs of this have already showed up with Thorn Syndicate’s departure from Black Legion. The internal frustration within -A- has likewise surfaced weeks ago. Within the CFC you had the grumbling within GENTS about their lack of effect in their northern offensive. Razor members were quieted for “complaining too much.” There was also the issue of identity within the CFC which may be a symptom of greater stress.
The recent “B0TLRD Accords” between PL and the CFC can also be interpreted several ways from the CFC working with PL, to the CFC fearing PL to PL not trusting that N3 will win the war in the long run. You can find accord itself online but over all these are the points that stood out:
1. The goals it to allow both PL and the CFC to maintain income sources during the on going war.
2. Both sides agree not to attack the other’s capital entities within designated “home space” (as opposed to “buffer” space.) Both sides will also not bring anymore than 5 triage carriers and a bridging titan. Bringing a subcapital force larger than 250.
So far so good one can argue. PL doesn’t bring their blap capitals to kill CFC forces where as CFC promises to limit the size of their fleets. On the other hand one can also argue that with the CFC having more people to cycle in and out of war, eventually PL will burn out sooner than the CFC. Here is where I think “mistakes were made” on PL’s part in the agreement.
3. Each side may initiate an unrestricted attack on all non signatory entities in designated “home regions.” Also while on home territory if the signatory defender is using a non signatory ally to defend its space, the other signatory entity may not intervene. So if BL and CFC are defending themselves against NCdot, PL cannot show up to that fight.
The real problem arises when we see what is defined as “home region” and what is deemed”buffer region.”
CFC Home Regions:
Branch, Tenal, Venal, Vale of the Silent, Tribute, Deklein, Fade, Pure Blind, Cloud Ring, Outer Ring, Syndicate, Fountain, Delve, Period Basis, Querious. This is minus BL/SOLAR sov, as they are not signatories.
PL/BOT sov in Oasa, Outer Passage, Malpais, The Spire, and the spattering of SOV 5 systems currently under PL control. This is minus N3 sov, as they are not signatories.
Perrigen Falls, Kalevala Expanse, Etherium Reach, Cache, Insmother, Detorid
That’s interesting. The CFC Home Regions seems to be all of their regions including any of the regions on the northern front that N3 could strike out against. On the other hand, PL’s bordering regions to the northern front are all “Buffer zones” and free to be attacked and taken by the CFC.
This is by far the greatest move the CFC has done for the entire war. They’ve negotiated the defanging of PL to the point where they are no longer a meaningful threat to the CFC. PL is not allowed to hit the CFC in any meaningful manner where as the CFC can act according to its terms and favoring its doctrines.
Either I am missing something here that favors PL in any meaningful way or there was an under the table pile of cash thrown at PL to agree to such blatantly bad terms. This literally reads like this:
“The CFC is allowed to punch you in the face, and or punch your allies in the face.
P.S. You can’t touch us at all.”
I am truly impressed by the CFC’s ability to negotiate such favorable terms. While not claiming to be any sort of Kissinger (nor would I want to be) I do like studying diplomacy. I can’t help but cringe at what an awful move this is for one side yet at the same time be truly impressed at how good it is for the other.
What does this mean for N3? Well it means that any offensive up north is going to have a lot less weight. It’s effectively shut down N3’s offensive there while allowing the CFC to go about business as usual. The 250 sub cap limit favors the CFC as they can now keep an offense up north with limited numbers while allowing them to more fully enforce their allies in the south. Perhaps I’m missing something.
At the start of the war I mentioned the importance of this system. I spoke about how it is the life line of logistics for -A- and its allies. It feeds right into Catch and unless you want to go through Provi or Querious you NEED to jump into HED-GP to reach the south. Without HED-GP the south all logistics bound from Empire will have to add many more jumps to reach its destination. When I initially wrote about this, DTF comments were dismissive but it seems that N3 either had the same idea as I did or listened to what I had said.
At the time of writing this, CFC and “RUS” forces have stood down ceding the field to the opposition forces. A notable mention goes out to Provibloc forces that initiated the opportunity for such a battle to take place by taking out the cynojammer. I suppose “RUS” should have listened more closely.
The CFC has stabilized the northern front via diplomatic means while leaving room for future expansion. On the other hand the loss of HED-GP is perhaps the most meaningful loss of the war so far. Cutting off the logistical support from Empire will be a nightmare to say the least. On top of that there are symbolic aspects tied to HED-GP. As someone that made a career out of harassing -A- HED-GP in cov ops during the summer of 2012 I can only wish them luck in the future. It remains up to the CFC to see if they’ll provide any sort of meaningful relief or simply cut their losses and rest assured on their favorable agreement.
– Seraph IX Basarab
