In a previous article that I wrote I shared the opinion that Black Legion needs to mature in its politics and diplomatic dealings or risk having events such as the one in FR-BH1 happen over and over again. My advice was that Black Legion needed its own allies or coalition. Today I am happy to see that the first step in this direction was taken. Black Legion has allied up with “Neo Stain Wagon” (such as D of D, AAA, C0VEN etc) along with Solar and have begun a push into N3 renting territories in the south. Here we will consider some possible outcomes and what this means for Eve. Now I cannot say to know for how long that this arrangement will last. At the very least I can say that the opinions of some previous articles written by me have been vindicated in one big swoop.
First i’d like to point out that even though “the Russians” hold long grudges against one another, they realize when it is advantageous to align with your co-nationals for your own greater good. Many readers scoffed at the notion that AAA/DnD would ever ally up with Solar. As things stand, just that political move changes the landscape of Eve drastically. For one “the Russians” have a foothold west of “the great ocean” (the regions split by the region Stain.) You several groups that have a large combined super cap force. Most importantly we finally have a strong emerging non CFC non N3 entity on the rise with both of the major players i’m sure considering new options.
Now the cherry on the proverbial cake is throwing Black Legion into all this. Going back to my aforementioned article, I stressed the importance of BL moving their game up on the political scene. It doesn’t matter how good of an FC you are and how good of an alliance you run. Once you are noticed by the bigger groups they will put some attention (read blowing up a bunch of your super caps) on you very quickly. Instead of letting FR-BH1 become a crushing defeat, it has become a catalyst for adaptation. The three options BL had were allying with N3…which had a snow flakes chance in hell to happen, becoming part of the CFC which was almost as unlikely, and the underdog black horse out of no where option: ally with the south and form your own coalition.
Now when I wrote all this I got some remarks from several BL grunts such as from my former colleague Ezek Price, “Author does not understand BL.” Well I guess I kind of do maybe just a little. I never claim to make predictions. I simply observe, take the information that I do have and provide some educated possibilities. I would say most of the time i’m kind of in the ball park unless someone does something to go full retard coughFALCONcough… you never go full retard.
“Alright Seraph, great, but I didn’t come here to read your smug post about being right. Whats your point? What now?”
Well we have Solar deployed in KDF-GY and N3 including PL seem to be attempting a head shot of AAA in their capital of GE-. Until that situation resolves we have no idea how it will go. The sides seemed pretty evenly matched with resources and numbers going in favor of N3 while this new Southern Coalition has the home advantage. In all this we have to consider that the Goons are sitting back and considering their options as well. Do they allow N3 a victory, which may very well happen against this newly grown coalition, or do they step in. My money is that they will do whatever they can to frustrate N3. Goons have no real beef with any entity in the Southern Coalition. Sure they helped TEST when Montolio couldn’t win his war in the south. But nothing in recent history is really personal.
The question is HOW should the Goons help. This is a subtle but important thing to concern. If the Goons go full in and augment the Southern fleet, they risk making this new coalition somewhat irrelevant. They need their own room to grow and develop and gain a sense of their own identity. You don’t want to raise up another batch of lovable idiots that you’ll have to put down later now do you? No. So instead of showing up and parking your supers right in GE, it may be better for the CFC to simply strike via Curse that way you force N3 into a big one-two fight where they have to divide their forces. This new Southern Coalition can hold their own and at least tread water if worse comes to worst while the CFC can get their revenge and fulfill their much touted “plans of punishment” they have been murmuring about for the past few months.
There’s nothing out there that suggests to me the N3 will stand against this. The Southern Coalition can regain their old renting territories in the deep south and push eastward until their border hits another Russian speaking entity, Legion of xXDeathXx. Speaking of which they could play an important role in this coming conflict if they really want to. If ties were made with their western compatriots in the form of Solar, AAA and DnD, they could be the ones that pulls the rug right out from under the N3 frontline.
The future of such a coalition is going to be extremely uncertain in the near future. The CFC would be smart to recognize that they, at least for the time being, are an asset. A south that belongs to N3 would be much more problematic than one that belonged to AAA/DnD/BL etc. Truthfully I don’t think anyone else really wants the south because it will mean having to constantly defend from the pissed off natives that will base out of Stain. Furthermore the stereo type that “Catch sucks” seems to stick in the mind of many people. Catch is decent space with some parts that suck while others that are quite nice.
Speaking of “hitting it in the ball park” it’s nice to see that TEST actually did what I suggested (I doubt I had any actual influence and to claim other wise would be sheer stupid arrogance) and focus on small(er) gang pvp to train up their FCs. I think it would be good to continue on this path yet at the same time opening up diplomatic relations with this new Southern Coalition. From the perspective of DnD/AAA/BL etc, I would strongly keep the door open to TEST as an alliance. Being rooted in Reddit I believe that TEST has long term staying power. What their leadership will do with that may or may not profit the alliance as a whole but they really have no where to go. CFC won’t take them in except as foot stools, N3 will never respect them. Joining up with the Southern Coalition is their best option. And why wouldn’t you want to have that many bodies to throw at your opponents? Yes TEST pretty much forced AAA to abandon Catch for quite some time but their return has made them more solidified than before. Never inflict every insult upon your enemy for in the future they may be your ally. I strongly suggest the Southern Coalition diplomats take TEST into consideration.
* Updated Nov 2nd, after N3’s loss at GE-*
Even with all the confidence from N3’s side they have been unable to score their much needed headshot victory at GE. Instead of “the Russians” crumbling to pieces I think this victory means much more to them than the loss for N3. In any case this shows that this will be a prolonged conflict. Really as N3 it may have been better to simply cede the southern renter regions which have been historically part of AAA+allies. Aside from Solar, no one else really seems to want the Drone Regions. With a bit better diplomacy, N3 could have earned AAA/DnD as allies and flipped the front line in Querious with AAA/DnD as a buffer against the CFC rather than having to save face from their failure in GE.
One other thing, when will people stop disconsidering Provibloc? They’ve defended their space time and time again, even more recently against the likes of Insidious Empire. So in essence Provibloc did something Razor couldn’t even do. (que sour grapes cliche meme here) Is Provibloc any sort of elite super cap power force? No. But to turn your nose up just for the sake of arrogance and scoff at them as N3 did in their previous state of the coalition is simply foolish. N3 could profit greatly from engaging in diplomatic talks with Provibloc who could be a small but persistent thorn in the side of AAA.
Question to N3 would be, are you happy with the way this conflict is shaping up? If not, it may not be a military problem, but a diplomatic one which leads to military failures. See how the CFC is “terrible at pvp” yet owns half of the Eve map? This is due to an intelligent political stratagem. To folly of the “elite pvp mentality” isn’t that we should scoff at pvp capable entities, but rather people who think military strength alone wins wars are certain to fail in the long term.
To get back to where we started, I believe BL is seeing this after their mishap in FR- and have decided to play a smarter game. People are going to whine, complain and call your alliance “shit” regardless of what you do. At the end of the day what matters is results.
– Seraph IX Basarab
