Hello, my name is Seraph IX Basarab and I’m an opinion piece writer and analyst of Eve politics and war here at EN24. The thoughts and opinions written here are mine and not meant to represent anyone else’s.
Although this may be coming in late, it was necessary to conceal intelligence sources. I thought it important to analyze the Imperium’s “revenge campaign” from August 2017, or as I’ve come to affectionately call it, the Fizzle War. Everything’s been hushed up on the Imperium’s side regarding the campaign, but when it was kicking off, there was much talk about how it was a “continuation of the Casino War,” with promises of destruction and revenge. The objectives promised did not materialize as intended. The campaign kicked off with great fanfare and the Imperium’s propaganda mouthpiece, INN, declared unmatched opsec in the coalition’s ability regarding their orders. Unfortunately for Goons, Polaris (NCdot intel), had known for quite some time. Vince Draken (NCdot leader) even pinged just the night before to move citadels and head off Goons in their deployment. It’s quite interesting to go back and re-read some of the literature on INN regarding the events, particularly that of former Imperium News Network propagandist, Moomin Amatin. Spare yourself his bloviating unless you have time for it. Instead, I’ll focus on the stated objectives:
PanFam values ISK, prestige, and content. You don’t need to deploy a whole coalition to figure that out. Moomin here is echoing Mitten’s strategy. With TEST hitting Darkness from Venal, and the Imperium hitting Syndicate where Mercenary Coalition was living at the time, they can force PanFam to “choose” to either support Darkness against TEST or defend Syndicate. Of course, the result was that PanFam abandoned Syndicate for the three weeks or so of the campaign, netting the Imperium approximately a few dozen billion ISK at most. This temporary victory came at the cost of feeding/losing trillions in the form of failed assaults on the north or lost supers and Rorquals in Delve, which was left mostly defenseless. One notable exception was a lost Loki fleet by NCdot which again could hardly compare.
Literally what? Goonswarm’s doing charity work for the rest of Eve? This objective is just dumb, and Moomin’s analysis either showed the stupidity of GSF leadership or his failure to accurately analyze the situation. Even if they were successful at it, giving nullsec a break from PanFam gains GSF nothing. Good will? Nah. Too late for that.
They developed a new understanding of missile travel time mechanics and how costly it can be in battle perhaps. As far as developing new tactics… has GSF ever in recent years?
To highlight things everyone is already aware of? Both redundant and irrelevant simultaneously.
A significant failure here as well. Syndicate was immediately lost by the Imperium after the coalition retreated home to Delve. All the mining and ISK in the world can’t save you if you do not have the competent leadership or FCs to make use of it. Seeing as Mittani seems more occupied with posting unironic pro-Socialist GrrGamerGate badposting on his Twitter account, one can understand why things weren’t thought all the way through.
I’m going to go with the none-of-the-above option here. If anything this showed the Imperium is a shadow of its former self. Its ability to project its interests out of Delve is minimal. They were even unwilling or unable to make use of its sizable super capital force. Delve is a concentrated farming ground for dread bombs. Unable to do anything, Imperium propaganda continues to center around “yeah but did you guys see our mining metrics!?”
Or instead allow new “bees” to see how much hurf and blurf Mittens can spin and how painful it is to fall on your face when reality doesn’t match the propaganda put out, oh “sweet summer children.”
When the Imperium failed to win any real objectives, Mittens fell back into making new objectives that were even less relevant than the original. Thus we are introduced to “roach motels;” Basically spamming Freeport citadels in PanFam space in the hopes that this will suddenly invite a bunch of people to stage out of them and attack PanFam interests. This tactic was a comical failure and a complete waste of resources and time. Despite this, it was highlighted as some kind of crowning achievement by the GSF leadership.
I’m not going to deny people didn’t “have fun.” Often when actual military metrics indicate failure, Eve alliance leaders often fall back on “well we had fun, and that was the REAL objective all along.” But that’s a nonsense cop-out. Sure it may have been fun, but it’s always more fun to be on the delivering end of firepower rather than the receiving. Time will tell if the Imperium will actually be able to carry out a successful campaign. Right now the membership is consoled with “but our mining ticks” propaganda from on high, and the occasional successful dreadbomb against Guardians of the Galaxy. They do have the capability regarding organization and resources. The talent in leadership and a realistic plan, on the other hand, has remained elusive.
Featured image credit: Razorien