Comments

Hello, my name is Hugh Caswakk and I’m a writer and part-time conspiracy theorist for EN24. The half-mad ravings here are my own and do not represent the official view of EN24, my corp, alliance or coalition.

I put the disclaimer in because I’m going to try some analysis which may verge on conspiracy theory. Don’t take this too seriously, though maybe there’ll be something of substance in what I write. So, with our tinfoil conspiracy hats on, let’s get into this.

Setting the Stage

It is my belief that ‘the North’ may be preparing the opening moves for an invasion of ‘the South’. By this, I mean Panfam (Northern Coalition., Pandemic Legion and Pandemic Horde) + GOTG vs Imperium (lead by Goonswarm) + Legacy (TEST + Brave). We know that the two power blocs are at war. There was that unpleasant business in 9-4 for one thing. Panfam and TEST are currently shooting each other over Providence. Suffice it to say that relations are not particularly warm.

One key thing that the Imperium likes to do is raid other groups’ ratters and miners. Particularly, they’ve been basing out of northern Fountain and hitting Horde assets in Cloud Ring. They’ve been, to my understanding, somewhat successful.

Now, for pressing demographic reasons, Horde is moving away from their current holdings. That makes a good deal of sense. GOTG, it seems, is likely to be taking up the burden of providing security. GOTG used to have Horde as a solid buffer against GSF invasion. Fozziesov means that it takes weeks to grind through even a lightly held region. This, once Horde moves, will no longer be the case.

This means that GOTG can’t go on any coalition deployments to interesting places, for fear of the Goons grabbing their space. But if they are going to invade the Imperium – then they don’t need to.

More Rambling

So, GOTG would like to resolve this security challenge. Otherwise, they have a hostile force on their border with easy routes into their space. But, how can this problem be resolved? Conquering Delve, and therefore destroying GSF as a threat, is out of the question. However, there is a quirk of spatial geography which can be exploited.

To hold the entirety of northern Fountain, you need to deny the enemy passage through two systems. D4KU-5 and KVN-36. If these are held, then the enemy will be unable to effectively deploy by gate into northern Fountain. The map below has both those systems circled in red. If you look at them, you can see that holding those two systems turns the rest of Fountain into a buffer. Of course, capitals and bridges allow some movement around this. But it does reduce the security challenge significantly. Holding northern Fountain might also permit the invasion of all Fountain – up to Y-2ANO. That would entirely isolate GSF within Delve.

Fountain with key chokepoints highlighted. Source: dotlan

Conspiracy Intensifies

Okay, so, let’s keep going. Let us say that the north wants to take half of Fountain, providing a defensible buffer. If they tried that, however, the Imperium would bring their supercapital fleet. Now, that alone can be dealt with. The north can probably take the Imperium supers. But if TEST came to join as well, with their supercapital assets, then it all becomes much dicier.

So, TEST needs to be dealt with. Evicting them is beyond the capacity of the North. However, tying them up is. In a post-Phoebe world, you need to keep your supers in one place. Jump fatigue means that, to get any use out of them, they have to be based in – at most – a handful of regions rather than bouncing all over the place.

This is where Horde come in. Horde have pressing and good reasons to move to Geminate. However, their movement might also be rather useful to this theory. From Geminate they might help the DRF finish off Triumvirate (TRI), an alliance in the south bent fighting nearly everyone. We know they’re already fighting TRI, so this doesn’t seem a massive leap. After helping the DRF, they might be able to cut a deal to base out of DRF territory to attack TEST. The DRF did let TEST base out of their territory to attack GOTG – so they’re not averse to basing agreements. Further, DRF and TEST are not intrinsically friends. They are probably going to compete over renter space.

Now, obviously, Horde cannot evict the entirety of Legacy. But they – in addition to whatever allies they bring – can annoy them. There is little more terrifying than a horde of newbies with nothing to lose. Now, they can be shut down. Capitals and supercapitals are a great way to do that. If not that, then significant and boring effort by line members is required.

But if TEST keeps their supercapitals and capitals back home to fend off annoying Horde incursions, then they’re not helping the Goons against the combined northern supercap fleet. Given that they hardly love Goons, I suspect that they’d rather let the Goons lose than commit huge effort to holding their space.

So, if we put it all together, then we get this situation:

  • Northern Fountain is vulnerable to GOTG/PanFam supercapital-led invasion.
  • TEST has its main force tied down dealing with Horde being annoying.
  • The Imperium must either gamble their supercapital force in a direct clash or give up northern Fountain. Either way, they’re not in a great position.

Back to Reality

Okay, so, that was a deep dive into some fun conspiracy theory. I don’t want to end it on a downer, but that scenario is quite unlikely. Even leaving aside the various flaws and vagaries in the plan, of which I am sure there are many. Northern alliance leaders are unlikely to want to do something like this. In many ways, that’s quite right. Their primary objective is to serve the needs of pilots in their organisations.

But I do think that something like this should happen. Not precisely like this, of course. It’s not massively workable. But something of this magnitude.

I’m not going to appeal to the health of the game – though a genuine Third Great War would be amazing. Instead, it’s a matter of geospatial strategy. The Goons are coming. They’re building a preposterously large super fleet. Hakonen and 9-4 were probes. Invasion is a matter of when, not if.

An offence is the best form of defence. By taking northern Fountain – or indeed, all of Fountain – they can be contained. War cannot be stopped, but it can be shaped. An aggressive posture might be one way to tip the odds. And having seen the MERs, well, those odds might just need to be tipped.

498 Comments

  1. I think this is one of the most important information for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But should remark on few general things, The website style is ideal, the articles is really nice : D. Good job, cheers

    December 25, 2018 at 13:14 Reply
  2. Thanks for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do some research about this. We got a grab a book from our local library but I think I learned more clear from this post. I am very glad to see such wonderful information being shared freely out there.

    December 25, 2018 at 13:28 Reply
  3. Of course, what a magnificent site and instructive posts, I surely will bookmark your website.Best Regards!

    December 25, 2018 at 13:28 Reply
  4. The precise advice can prevent money and time.

    December 25, 2018 at 19:29 Reply
  5. The right advice can save you money and time.

    December 25, 2018 at 21:59 Reply
  6. Keep functioning ,terrific job!

    December 27, 2018 at 21:48 Reply
  7. I’m really impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your weblog. Is this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself? Anyway keep up the nice quality writing, it is rare to see a nice blog like this one today..

    December 27, 2018 at 21:49 Reply
  8. Very efficiently written information. It will be beneficial to anyone who utilizes it, as well as myself. Keep up the good work – i will definitely read more posts.

    December 27, 2018 at 22:00 Reply
  9. I’m excited to find this page. I want to to thank you for
    ones time just for this fantastic read!! I definitely liked
    every bit of it and I have you saved to fav to look at new things on your
    web site.

    December 28, 2018 at 03:18 Reply
  10. I am constantly searching online for tips that can assist me. Thx!

    January 3, 2019 at 01:00 Reply
  11. I am not sure where you’re getting your info, but good topic. I needs to spend some time learning much more or understanding more. Thanks for excellent information I was looking for this information for my mission.

    January 3, 2019 at 01:06 Reply
  12. I am constantly looking online for articles that can aid me. Thanks!

    January 3, 2019 at 07:08 Reply
  13. I want to express my thanks to you for rescuing me from this type of condition. As a result of checking through the the net and getting recommendations that were not productive, I assumed my life was gone. Existing without the presence of approaches to the difficulties you’ve solved by way of your guide is a serious case, as well as those which might have badly affected my career if I hadn’t encountered your blog. Your main competence and kindness in dealing with almost everything was very useful. I’m not sure what I would have done if I hadn’t discovered such a step like this. I can also at this point look forward to my future. Thanks very much for your high quality and result oriented help. I will not hesitate to propose your blog post to any person who needs and wants counselling on this subject.

    January 3, 2019 at 07:45 Reply
  14. It¡¦s really a great and helpful piece of info. I am happy that you just shared this helpful info with us. Please stay us up to date like this. Thank you for sharing.

    January 3, 2019 at 07:47 Reply
  15. I think this is one of theamong the most importantsignificantvital informationinfo for me. And i’mi am glad reading your article. But wannawant toshould remark on fewsome general things, The websitesiteweb site style is perfectidealgreatwonderful, the articles is really excellentnicegreat : D. Good job, cheers

    January 3, 2019 at 11:41 Reply
  16. Simply want to say your article is as astounding. The clarity in your post is just nice and i could assume you’re an expert on this subject. Fine with your permission allow me to grab your RSS feed to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please continue the rewarding work.

    January 4, 2019 at 01:50 Reply
  17. Fantastic goods from you, man. I’ve understand your stuff previous to and you’re just extremely excellent.

    I actually like what you have acquired here, certainly like what you are stating and the way in which you
    say it. You make it entertaining and you still care for to keep it
    wise. I can not wait to read far more from you.
    This is really a tremendous web site.

    January 4, 2019 at 16:29 Reply
  18. Hey, you used to write wonderful, but the last several posts have been kinda boring¡K I miss your super writings. Past few posts are just a little bit out of track! come on!

    January 6, 2019 at 07:46 Reply
  19. Keep on working, great job!

    January 7, 2019 at 21:02 Reply
  20. obviously like your website however you have to test the spelling on several of your posts. A number of them are rife with spelling problems and I to find it very troublesome to inform the reality however I will definitely come again again.

    January 10, 2019 at 13:33 Reply
  21. What i don’t understood is in reality how you are now not really much more well-appreciated than you might be now. You’re very intelligent. You understand thus significantly with regards to this matter, produced me individually imagine it from so many varied angles. Its like women and men don’t seem to be interested except it¡¦s one thing to accomplish with Girl gaga! Your individual stuffs outstanding. All the time care for it up!

    January 10, 2019 at 13:34 Reply
  22. I just wanted to construct a quick message in order to thank you for the nice points you are giving here. My extensive internet research has finally been compensated with really good facts and strategies to share with my friends. I ‘d claim that we website visitors are unequivocally blessed to dwell in a wonderful community with so many awesome professionals with useful methods. I feel very privileged to have come across the web page and look forward to some more thrilling moments reading here. Thanks again for everything.

    January 10, 2019 at 13:35 Reply
  23. I have been examinating out many of your posts and i must say pretty clever stuff. I will make sure to bookmark your website.

    January 10, 2019 at 13:53 Reply
  24. Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wished to say that I have truly enjoyed surfing around your blog posts. After all I’ll be subscribing to your rss feed and I hope you write again soon!

    January 10, 2019 at 13:56 Reply
  25. I am really impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself? Anyway keep up the excellent quality writing, it’s rare to see a great blog like this one nowadays..

    January 10, 2019 at 14:02 Reply
  26. Hello there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found that it is truly informative. I am going to watch out for brussels. I’ll be grateful if you continue this in future. Numerous people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

    January 10, 2019 at 14:11 Reply
  27. I’m really impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself? Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it’s rare to see a nice blog like this one nowadays.|

    January 12, 2019 at 20:00 Reply
  28. I’m curious to find out what blog system you’re working with? I’m having some small security problems with my latest site and I’d like to find something more safe. Do you have any recommendations?|

    January 12, 2019 at 21:43 Reply
  29. If some one wants to be updated with latest technologies therefore he must be pay a quick visit this web page and be up to date every day.|

    January 12, 2019 at 23:24 Reply
  30. I’ve read a few excellent stuff here. Definitely price bookmarking for revisiting. I wonder how so much attempt you put to create the sort of magnificent informative site.|

    January 13, 2019 at 01:07 Reply
  31. First of all I would like to say terrific blog! I had a quick question that I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to know how you center yourself and clear your thoughts prior to writing. I’ve had difficulty clearing my thoughts in getting my ideas out there. I truly do enjoy writing however it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes tend to be wasted just trying to figure out how to begin. Any ideas or tips? Kudos!|

    January 13, 2019 at 02:55 Reply
  32. Hi there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing months of hard work due to no data backup. Do you have any methods to protect against hackers?|

    January 13, 2019 at 04:35 Reply
  33. I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was great. I don’t know who you are but certainly you are going to a famous blogger if you are not already 😉 Cheers!|

    January 13, 2019 at 08:04 Reply
  34. I’m gone to tell my little brother, that he should also go to see this weblog on regular basis to take updated from hottest information.|

    January 13, 2019 at 09:48 Reply
  35. What’s up, just wanted to say, I enjoyed this article. It was practical. Keep on posting!|

    January 13, 2019 at 11:32 Reply
  36. I am truly glad to read this weblog posts which includes lots of useful information, thanks for providing these kinds of information.|

    January 13, 2019 at 15:13 Reply
  37. Does your blog have a contact page? I’m having problems locating it but, I’d like to shoot you an email. I’ve got some creative ideas for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great site and I look forward to seeing it develop over time.|

    January 13, 2019 at 16:57 Reply
  38. Hi to every body, it’s my first pay a quick visit of this web site; this webpage consists of awesome and in fact good material for readers.|

    January 13, 2019 at 18:37 Reply
  39. Simply want to say your article is as astonishing. The clearness in your post is simply excellent and i could assume you are an expert on this subject. Fine with your permission let me to grab your RSS feed to keep up to date with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please keep up the gratifying work.|

    January 13, 2019 at 20:19 Reply
  40. Hi there, its pleasant piece of writing regarding media print, we all be familiar with media is a fantastic source of facts.|

    January 13, 2019 at 22:00 Reply
  41. Heya! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any issues with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing a few months of hard work due to no back up. Do you have any solutions to protect against hackers?|

    January 14, 2019 at 04:15 Reply
  42. I think the admin of this website is genuinely working hard in support of his web site, for the reason that here every information is quality based data.|

    January 14, 2019 at 06:14 Reply
  43. Thank you, I have recently been searching for info about this topic for a long time and yours is the best I have found out till now. However, what about the bottom line? Are you sure about the supply?|

    January 14, 2019 at 08:16 Reply
  44. What’s up everyone, it’s my first pay a visit at this site, and post is truly fruitful in favor of me, keep up posting such content.|

    January 14, 2019 at 10:23 Reply
  45. Its like you read my mind! You appear to know so much about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with a few pics to drive the message home a bit, but instead of that, this is wonderful blog. A fantastic read. I will definitely be back.|

    January 14, 2019 at 12:33 Reply
  46. Undeniably consider that which you said. Your favorite reason seemed to be at the internet the simplest factor to take into account of. I say to you, I definitely get irked whilst people consider concerns that they plainly don’t realize about. You managed to hit the nail upon the highest and also defined out the entire thing with no need side effect , people can take a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thank you|

    January 16, 2019 at 20:43 Reply
  47. SweetWonderful blog! I found it while browsingsurfing aroundsearching on Yahoo News. Do you have any tipssuggestions on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! ThanksMany thanksAppreciate itCheersThank you

    January 18, 2019 at 03:21 Reply
  48. Do you have a spam issue on this blog; I also am a blogger, and I was wanting
    to know your situation; many of us have created some nice procedures and we are looking to trade solutions with others, why not shoot me an e-mail if interested.

    January 19, 2019 at 02:41 Reply

Leave a Reply