“If we can predict the effects of changes we make. Players will be able to (some of you are always smarter than us), and changes that can be predicted are changes that can be addressed, and solved problems are boring. If we can know what the exact consequences will be for changes we’re making, we’ve already failed.” – CCP Greyscale
That said, let’s take a look at the changes and predict repercussions to the best of our ability.
A great way to envision the future is to see the past. Let’s play a game of analogies; EVE started with apes wielding bones (neanderthals). Then nomadic players emerged and began working together in corporations (family clans). Those were overtaken by tribal warlords (Khaaan!), who fell to the disciplined war machines of mega alliances with pets (Rome). That model was defeated by large numbers of players forming coalitions (fat feudal kings) who raised armies by renting lands to harvester serfs. The new model, if history is a teacher, should be power centers with satellite power centers (colonization) – more on that later.
CCP Games hopes to change EVE dramatically by reimagining how alliances control territory. The first step, hitting later this year, is through pilot jump fatigue (affectionately called “LE TIRED” by some). The fatigue hits every drop with stronger and stronger effect after every jump, eventually forcing the pilot to sleep on it (max will probably be around 48hrs). It’s like your own personal downtime. The fatigue wears off without interruption – including being unsubbed (moot point if capped).
The expected result is a decrease in an alliance reach and an increase in activity near “home.”
“This isn’t a business-as-usual tuning pass, this is redefining what jump drives are *for* in this game.” – CCP Greyscale
As a trade-off, capital ships can now fly through gates. Yes, all ships can now use gates, even titans. high sec
Expect to see some remarkable sights, including massive convoys slowly lumbering through your systems. Like giants on a pilgrimage to an ancestral war.
Often overlooked is that jump fatigue affects ANY pilot that jumps through ANY jump portal. These travel limitations affect all fleets unless they move through stargates.
Another oft-ignored change is the end of the “pod express,” whereby players change the station they will wake up in and self-destruct. A long-standing technique used to move cyno alts around New Eden instantly. Also, the main reason big alliances have numerous offices. It’s fairly convenient to get to the front lines after you packed up your ships and handed them off to the corp logistical team, who would deliver them to the war zone for you.
Players will now have to rely on jump clones prepositioned in strategic areas. A few months ago clone skills were revised allowing you to shorten the regular 24 hour wait time and allowed five more clones for a total of ten. Now, alliances will no doubt want those trained up.
There will be a second round of changes early next year and then a third round of larger changes in later 2015. These travel changes were the smallest of the three.
The reaction was swift and divisive. Some listing how many accounts they would close as a threat to CCP Games, while others praised the changes that will make New Eden “big again.”
The anger seems to be highest among renter alliances that likely have a well-oiled money making system in place that required safe long distance travel. Warring alliances tend to be happier since they are now insulated from counter capital surprise attacks.
Some lament the Black Ops limitations; one Hot Drop per day. Others fear the increase logistical work. Large “society” alliances like Goonswarm Federation or TEST Alliance worry their brand new recruits won’t be able to clone over to their strongholds on day one. CCP Games is looking into all the legitimate issues and has already announced a clone jump adjustment.
Now for some areas where change may come as a consequence of these and other changes in the future.
New Eden has always had a central market; from Yulai, in the early days to Jita ever since. Importing high-end nullsec loot and exporting ships for war in return is how nullsec survives. The increase in jump fuel costs didn’t change much. Now moving things in and out from far away places will cost RL playing time, a true hurdle.
It’s a good time to visit DotLan maps and predict where trading Hubs may open. This is sure to happen near “capital” stations – like YA0-XJ (GSF), GE-8JV (BRAVE), Boystin in Solitude, etc. Also, look for areas with jumps within 5 light years from a high sec adjacent system (path to big trade hubs). Deep lowsec and shallow nullsec may need supplies for players willing to pay a reasonable markup. Any system where there is a steady population and resupply-headaches will be viable.
Unpopulated deep space will suffer shortages; drone regions, far south, and others will have a hard time making exports to high-sec work. And without local populations to sell to the markets will shrivel.
Cap pilots will want ships where their jump clones are so they don’t have to fatigue themselves to get to the war front. Expect even more production of ships driving all the feeding industries harder – more Ore consumed, more blueprints bought. Building up production skills (refining, mining, manufacturing) can take years but be worthwhile now.
CCP Games has a driving vision of alliances building stargates. With caps now able to use gates the next “gold rush” will be creating conventional travel routes that lead all roads to your “capital” station.
Stations will be destructible at some point too. Those will serve as prefectures to city state empires and will undoubtedly need replacing after successful raids on them.
Once CCP Games fixes the way corporations and alliances work (permissions and access to corporation assets) in 2015, the old “One Man Team” approach to building alliance assets may change. The biggest problem with Null industry is that you need a team to build, but you can’t trust anyone because – well after all, this is EVE Online.
CCP Games is also fixing the contracting system, which may include new ways to offer freelance building services to sov holder. This could generate methods of safely hiring freelance builders like mercenaries, per project.
Also building Interceptors. They will be in high demand.
Most renters won’t defend their space and alliances will not have the manpower to patrol it. The big alliances will want to keep their troops together to maximize their strength so they won’t be jumping around to clean it up. Smaller patrols will police in roaming gangs to a certain degree.
Space tourism will likely still result in death because new opportunities to gate camp will be too tempting to ignore. Once you make it into deep space ; however, there will be a lot of empty space that no one wants to depend on for consistent content.
In a way, nullsec will look like Canada. Everyone will live near the border of big markets (‘merica!) and the other 90% of it will be empty (or so we’ll be led to believe).
Look for activity to increase here as players look for shortcuts to high-sec markets. You won’t see capital ships jumping through (stranding half the fleet behind after it collapses from mass depletion), but you might see escorted industrial haulers.
Ice miners have refined isotopes (capital ship fuel) from space ice for ages. It is a steady paycheck with a consistently good return in trade hubs. Many PVPers pay for their PLEX (and accounts) by ice mining alts. Logistic captains buy up isotopes in high-sec and haul them in jump freighters to wherever their capital fleets were stationed. With a 10% markup everyone made money, and capital pilots didn’t have to waste time getting fuel. This was the only sure seller at local nullsec bases.
Soon, capital ship jump drives will be limited to 5 light years from a point of origin and have to wait increasingly longer time between jumps. The result will be a decrease in long-range travel (and thus less fuel used). However, confidence to use them locally will rise since capital fleets only fear other capital fleets traveling long distances to pound on them. This means more capital usage (more fuel spent) in nearby areas. Time will tell if the increase in usage offsets the distance travelled as far as the isotope market is concerned, or if miners dedicate themselves to one “capital” station.
Most players cannot or do not want to join big nullsec alliances and who could blame them. The more people you associate with the more likely you are to be ashamed or embarrassed by their behavior. The majority of players rent nullsec, live in high or low sec space, or fall of the map into wormholes.
Large alliances ate themselves into immobility like fat kings with sycophants and jesters eating at their tables, throwing half eaten shanks to the serfs outside. War is for the poor.
This model will change, moving EVE into a new era. Here comes the colonization model. Soon real “capital” stations and become the seats of power, with “colony” stations in strategic locations, each housing massive fleets and an army of sleeping clones. PVPers will be asked or be required to have multiple capitals and ships in various regions.
The massive amount of wealth it will take to maintain this will force players to make decisions. Variant degrees of corp compliance will ensure no one ever fights at full strength again, and losses will need to be replaced locally or slowly, at great pains. CCP Games is banking on that being too much for any organization and the natural result will be to downsize or collapse.
Medium alliances in the coalition will try to cover lesser areas as their capital stations, but they will risk being set upon by larger enemies looking for unprotected prey. Help will not arrive in time, and if it does it won’t all the time. Does some help some of the time merits blue standings?
Maybe well-organized coalitions back each other up, but throw in espionage, misinformation campaigns, mistakes and you get armies trapped in the wrong place at the wrong time. Clone cool down timers holding them there. This reminds me of my favorite board game, Diplomacy. You can really only support your close neighbors.
FC’s will face new challenges moving ships. Strategic and regional gates will be choke points to stop a military advance. Emergency cyno pilots will have to stay alive or risk trapping their fleet behind enemy lines. New calculations on when to jump will need to be understood and timed correctly. In the first months, lots of capitals will be cloaked and offline once separated from the herd. Many will need to be rescued and scouted home.
Consider the structures added (syphon units, customs offices), stronger mining ships (the skiff), and other “farm and fields” features. New supply lines will need to be managed. And the list goes on.
Building and/or maintaining large empires are going to be hard. If there is anything we love about EVE, it’s that EVE is hard.
