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The Foreverwar

December 7, 2014

Between Fountain and Delve the debris fields are growing as the CFC and N3 forces collide, day in, day out. In this southwestern theater, these rivals are face to face. They’ve grabbed each other by the collar.

 

Politics of change

For now, N3 alliances are making slow and unsteady progress invading Fountain. The CFC alliances are living up to their promise to defend the borders they called out when Phoebe hit (the era of stifled military movements). Perhaps the combination of leaving the Delve territories, selling the infrastructure cheap, and sharply defining their boundaries were enough to appease typical null-sec competitors, but not N3. The CFC leader’s (The Mittani) gesture fell short of a signed non-invasion pact, but may have been the only smart play, politically. Asking for a truce can be interpreted as a sign of weakness, but a bribe comes from a place of power and wealth.

“Residence in the south-west is non-viable. We have been anchored down here, helping maintain the borders of a vast empire but time has come to unmoor and set sail. “Sister Bliss, The Initiative

The sacrificed CFC occupant of Delve, the Initiative, moved further away instead of helping defend Fountain. If the CFC were collapsing, this would recolor that decision, but the CFC is far from breaking, in fact, it has come out of its glove-up posture and taken swings of its own.  Fleets out of Hi-Sec (Badivefi), against Querious region, have created a housekeeping mess for N3 fleets, who regularly put out fires more than 25 jumps away, half that with a Titan bridge. To mitigate that travel, NCdot placed some supercarriers nearby but they were trapped and killed by the CFC.

The Mittani made a statement (on themittani.com, of course) regarding war progress. He seemed satisfied with the progress and the expectation is that it will get even better as it fights together longer. The biggest problem the CFC has faced is the false identification of a spy that led to an executioner squad killing the innocent CFC Titan pilot. He has since been made whole but the spymaster’s reputation for thoroughness has taken a hit. Not the confusion in fleet channel.

An even bigger problem is emerging: overextension in the north.  Parts of Fidelas Constans (capital builders) are dissatisfied with their situation in Branch, and a large corporation from Razor broke off to move closer to the center of activity: Goonswarm Federation. The atrophying of alliances that are too far from the action is incipient all over EVE, but only the CFC covers area where the coalition demands conscripts to fight in faraway places.

CCP has to balance a lot of competing factors to tune null-sec. Everything from destructible stations, to frequency of wormholes will effect living standards in deep space. Perhaps a reduction in jump bridge fatigue will re-establish the importance of a solid jump bridge network. After all the Romans marched on roads to defend their empire.

Summary

N3 Attacks (LBGI-2 )

CFC Strikes Back (LBGI-2)

Stalemate (Y-2ANO)

Super Carrier Base Destroyed – Stalemate (Y-2ANO)

 

Motives

If EVE is moving to a ‘live in it, profit from it’ occupancy model of sovereignty, the most powerful alliances will fortify on top of the richest regions, or at least rent them out so the alliance can be free to find action abroad.

Historically Delve has always been the pearl of the south, with great profiteering potential in the form of ratting, complexes and moon mining. Fountain is just a buffer zone between Delve and the northern regions. If an alliance like NCdot wanted to settle Delve they could have it, but right now Darkness and Kadeshi have it. An invasion of Fountain is a win-win: It keeps pilots entertained for now, and if CFC gets pushed back, it creates a vacancy that can pay off by installing Darkness or Kadeshi, or by taking it themselves for even more fights.

There may be one other motive: The Foreverwar.

The Foreverwar

Null-sec has returned to its roots: conventional stargate travel, moon-by-moon (POS) warfare, capital ships destroyed by subcapital fleets that corner and kill them. There is no cavalry past the 5LY jump limit that can avoid the dangerous practice of taking gates. The leading alliances in the CFC (Goons) and N3 (NCdot) understand what they are up against. They both know this warfare and they know who they are up against because they have been inextricably intertwined for nearly a decade, in a foreverwar.

“All this has happened before, and all of it will happen again.” – Sacred Scrolls, Battlestar Galactica

Fountain and Delve: here lie ghosts. The old powerhouse Band of Brothers (BOB) evolved into NCdot. Former BOB figureheads (SirMolle, LadyScarlet, and others) are still active, along with a ton of 120+ million skillpoint pilots. Long ago they kicked everyone else around, and marked the nascent Goonwswarm (Goons) for eradication, but BOB were unable to eradicate the self-proclaimed caustic pranksters. Goons not only survived BOB, they unplugged BOB through espionage, and cast them out of Delve (a la David and Goliath). As BOB deflated (now as Kenzuko) Goons moved in and chased BOB into Querious (49-U6U). There, BOB were cornered and extinguished by a collection of traditional enemies: Goonswarm, Pandemic Legion, and alliances from the true Northern Coalition.

In celebration the victors used 27 titans to doomsday a thanatos into oblivion.  This marked a new milestone in damage output as a fleet could now wipe out a capital fleet with titans alone. CCP took note and began work on changing the area of effect weapon to beam type weapon. This had ramifications later. We’ll get to that in a moment.

BOB was not dead. CCP used the Dominion expansion to rewrite sovereignty mechanics (still current). Rather than taking sov by having the most towers in system, you planted a flag known as a Territorial Claim Unit (TCU) to claim or break a claim to a system. Understanding the new rules, BOB (now known as IT Alliance) was able to use the transition to catch a foothold in Fountain (Y-2ANO and LBGI-2), the same systems currently contested. From there BOB pushed Pandemic Legion out of the region. Days later, Goonswarm imploded under mismanagement, internal strife and external military pressures (thread, map). The Goon leader had out-Gooned them all when his leadership was challenged. He pulled the plug on their vast sovereign holdings, pilfering 300 billion in cash and 1 Trillion in assets.  As a final measure he self-destructing numerous Dreadnaughts for the insurance payout.  Goonswarm self-destructed just as BOB was back.

Karttoon destroying Goonswarm Dreads for insurance

BOB flooded into Delve to fill the sovereignty crater left behind by Goonswarm’s mass exodus. The remnants of Goonswarm retreated to their ancestral homeland in Syndicate, just north of Fountain. They were not welcomed there, and were hounded by the locals. Their future in doubt, they found a new beginning deep in Deklein under the protection of the French alliance Tau Ceti Federation; a member of the true Northern Coalition. Tau Ceti, the Ben Kanobi of EVE, sheltered Goonswarm back to health then disappeared into it, giving it the boost it needed to create its own coalition, alongside the true Northern Coalition.

Meanwhile the remnants of BOB (as IT alliance) held the Fountain and Delve regions and sheltered a new PvP alliance made of former Providence pilots called Nulli Secunda. BOB’s borders were being tested and in one case by a passerby – NCdot (made mostly of former Triumvirate corps. The name “NC.“ is a mockery of their longtime foe, the true Northern Coalition. The name has outlived its usefulness, but they are stuck with it now). The battered NCdot backed off and moved south to take over Providence, but Goons and new their new ally TEST invaded Fountain.

Without their unifying figurehead SirMolle, BOB (as IT Alliance) fell apart fighting on two fronts; Fountain (against Goons and TEST) and Delve (against -A-). They reformed again (as Raiden) and invaded the North to seek revenge against the true Northern Coalition. With the Russian Drone alliances help, the true Northern Coalition broke after previously surviving many years of siege from various parties. Those alliances scattered, but many of them joined the Goons and TEST and together they officially became the CFC. Most of the core BOB corporations (Evolution, Destructive Influence, FinFleet) reformed a few more times before integrating into NCdot in mid-2013. The storied corporation Reikoku made their home in Pandemic Legion.

 

Aristocracy

It is well known that NCdot and Pandemic Legion are blue to one another. They may be PL’s only blue.  There is no direct coordination with each other. However both sides have players with long-standing ties.  Not only are BOB corps shared between them but the players themselves come from “legacy EVE” and have fought with or against each other. Old enemies from Against All Authorities, Atlas, Morsus Mihi, are now part of NCdot or Pandemic Legion.

These old corps have incredible wealth, highly skilled characters, years of game knowledge, and vast wealth of FC experience.  Owning a Titan is one thing. Knowing when to use it and when to keep it safe in a POS is another. The wealth generated by years of profiteering is said to be used for sovereignty bills and replacing ships lost in official ops. However, those books are closed. There are few people that know where that buying power really goes. That is true for all major alliances.  RMT (real money transaction) rumors spring up occasionally as players stir about whispers of their leaders cashing out on their hard work.

The CFC has its share of respected FCs but they are considered the “nouveau riche” that recently made their fortune by market manipulation, farming moons and eventually farming players in the form of renters. Goonswarm started out as misfits picked on by larger powers.  As they grew they faced more persecution and disrespect, but they got a seat at the table through Pandemic Legion, who had PVP reputation to spare. Alliances that surround the Goonswarm in the CFC gravitated to them for defensive purposes rather than cultural bonding.  Some CFC alliances do not approve of the scamming and soft griefing Goons inflict on Hi-Sec.

As CCP changed the game mechanics for super capital ships (changing the doomsday), they became vulnerable to smaller ships. Conventional (sub capital) pilots became a necessity for any supercapital op. In every alliance there are dual-boxers that have a supercap in one window, and a cruiser in another. The masses of pilots that fill in the lower positions of alliances fill in gaps and are required to aid the giant ships.

In fact, during this latest supercapital fight in Catch (HED-GP), NCdot formed a fleet of Ishtars, sent them to HED-GP, forgot they existed, then frantically and angrily called for them when their supers were getting tackled on the trip home. The sub capital grunts get no respect until they are needed.  That is true in all alliances.

The Ties that Bind

The conflict in Delve and Fountain may be an evolution of the Foreverwar, or just the latest playground for the ultra-rich. The motivations to go to war are not defined yet; they are emergent, like the rest of EVE.  If NCdot and N3 don’t win Fountain, then it will probably be excused as a campaign to smack the bee hive for ‘good fights’. If they win, they won’t restrain themselves and invite the CFC to stay, they will claim Fountain.

Secretly, the goal is most likely to prolong the war until CCP announces how the sov system will work so that the leaders of the giant coalitions can continue to amass wealth, the use of which is still darkly indeterminate.

Please add your perspective in comments here or in the WarpToZero forums.  Reach me at @Matterall373 on Twitter if needed.