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- Gevlon Goblin

If you would like to read more Gevlon Goblin articles, we invite you to visits his Greedy Goblin blog.

  • raz1980

    wow you have to much time on your hands pal

    • Homophobic John

      Thats not called time.

    • “Time”

      Semen*

  • Vajaja Monologues

    Correlation does not mean causation…

    epic face/palm.

    • http://www.eveonline.com/ hoodaticus

      You’re totally right! I guess we should just throw out all the correlation equations then. For instance, there’s a strong negative correlation between time and ACU. Do you think time is moving forward as ACU drops, or do you believe ACU is dropping as time moves forward?

    • http://batman-news.com Al

      No it does not, but nor is it guaranteed to not be a cause, please show your detailed analysis of cause??

      Correlation is used to predict future events, frequently in financial markets, ie if two shares correlate, buying into both would not diversify your portfolio. Ie if one drops the other is likely to do the same.

      Besides your entire contribution to the discussion is to parrot partial truth that you don’t really understand.

    • Spurty

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

      Why the face palm?

      As usual with stats, you can make em sing the song you want them to sing. If I plot on top of all that the days “I wear blue underpants” I bet I can find a way to make this appear like “those days, more people were on the wrong side of killmails” or something.

    • Spurty

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

      Why the face palm?

      As usual with stats, you can make em sing the song you want them to sing. If I plot on top of all that the days “I wear blue underpants” I bet I can find a way to make this appear like “those days, more people were on the wrong side of killmails” or something.

  • DaReaper

    I.. what? “More people do stuff in hs if the acu goes up!” uh.. no shit. “People do less stuff in low and null when the acu goes up, thus ccp is in trouble” uh what…I don’t… I can’t even… the hell are you smoking?!?1

    • Chris

      I dunno but I want some.

    • Chris

      I dunno but I want some.

    • Andy Koraka

      By stuff he means PvE, which makes sense that you won’t want to rat with neutrals coming through and/or camping your system.

      • DaReaper

        I know. That’s not the connection he’s making however.

  • Homophobic John

    I mean… I just.. Ugh…

    Just stop.

  • ShamusMcFistycuffs

    this is a 15 year old who loves charts and trying to sound smarterer than you.
    Goblin dude stfu and plz biomass

  • Chief Gumbo Speaker

    Imagine how much more fun playing eve would be, rather than making charts and graphs, about other people having fun….

    • Maichin Civire

      He doesn’t accept “fun” as measure for EVE, because you can’t calculate it.

  • Just No

    Please go write/play another game

  • Red Teufel

    nerf highsec!

  • jj

    Not in anyway interesting.

  • Endo

    Stop with the hate. Some of us like “graph porn”! This was a cool idea.

    • Stirthepot

      Try Harder Greedy Gobbler :P

  • Chris

    Sounds like somebody just took a course in statistics.

  • stopit
  • stopit
  • Andy Koraka

    The issue with highsec isnt that its worse than other space, but that MMO PvE is fundamentally repetitive and grindy. The issue isn’t specific to EvE, every MMO has to address it at some point, usually by pumping gobs of money/man hours into new Quests/Raids/Story for players to consume. CCP has pretty much ignored that, using the cop-out “eve is a sandbox”.

    Picture where WoW would be sitting if the most recently released Raid was still Molten Core, that’s incursions.

    Picture where WoW would be sitting if the most recent batch of Quests were added in 2005, that’s highsec missioning.

    What happens is that new players join, get guided into the mission track by the starter agents, play through all ~10 unique security missions for a corp, then grind isk twoards a ship the next size up. Fast forward 2-3 months when they’re sitting in their Raven Navy Issue they ask ” what now?” and either get involved in the sandbox (PvP) or quit. Miners have it worse, because at least the missioner has the combat skills trained to transition into PvP.

  • Andy Koraka

    The issue with highsec isnt that its worse than other space, but that MMO PvE is fundamentally repetitive and grindy. The issue isn’t specific to EvE, every MMO has to address it at some point, usually by pumping gobs of money/man hours into new Quests/Raids/Story for players to consume. CCP has pretty much ignored that, using the cop-out “eve is a sandbox”.

    Picture where WoW would be sitting if the most recently released Raid was still Molten Core, that’s incursions.

    Picture where WoW would be sitting if the most recent batch of Quests were added in 2005, that’s highsec missioning.

    What happens is that new players join, get guided into the mission track by the starter agents, play through all ~10 unique security missions for a corp, then grind isk twoards a ship the next size up. Fast forward 2-3 months when they’re sitting in their Raven Navy Issue they ask ” what now?” and either get involved in the sandbox (PvP) or quit. Miners have it worse, because at least the missioner has the combat skills trained to transition into PvP.

  • I.P Freely

    I went slightly cross-eyed then put youporn back on. I mean, shit. Come on! You should just be put down. Tragic waste of life.

  • BS

    captain hindsight strikes again!!!

  • confusedblackgirl.jpg

    Is EVE dead yet?

  • B.S. Goblin

    Controversially, if more X happens, more people log in.

    • Chris

      I think you mean Conversely.

      • B.S. Goblin

        Maybe i do, What is this? Shittani.com?

    • Sagarkor

      But for how long do the stay? That is the question….

  • ripley weaver

    fucking nerds with their graphs, charts & spreadsheets. they killed eve

    • Shattershark

      Go play Hello Kitty Online, you don’t need spreadsheets there.

    • The14th

      Nerds made EVE

  • Sagarkor

    It’s funny all the hate against the Goblin, however the data is data, and does not lie and instead of attacking him the question should be: Where’s my P-value? The R-squared is not high enough for my taste, If I wanted to make some assertions at work, I’d need to have 95%+. Perhaps some more variables are required?

    • ShamusMcFistycuffs

      no nerd stuff please

      • Sagarkor

        Geeks will rule the world someway, or haven’t you heard ;-)

    • College Prof

      You are confusing the correlation coefficient (r-squared) with the p value or significance testing. Any r-squared over 50% is absolutely significant. Keep in mind, this bivariate analysis is very basic given the limited number of variables, nontheless, for once, Gevlin is showing a semblance of intelligence without an extra portion of propaganda.

      • Sagarkor

        Not entirely. An r-squared value that is high enough, would give me some indication of the practical significance of the data as it pertains to the context, however the p_value would give me statistical significance, though another tool would have to be used (ANOVA or GLM) to get not only the overall value, but each p-value as variables interact with each other. Both are required for the analysis and outcomes to be meaningful.. though for EVE I guess it works as is. :-)

      • Sagarkor

        Not entirely. An r-squared value that is high enough, would give me some indication of the practical significance of the data as it pertains to the context, however the p_value would give me statistical significance, though another tool would have to be used (ANOVA or GLM) to get not only the overall value, but each p-value as variables interact with each other. Both are required for the analysis and outcomes to be meaningful.. though for EVE I guess it works as is. :-)

      • Internet Lawyer

        He’s showing competency in performing statistical analysis. As usual however, his analysis of human behavior is flawed and the reasoning for his conclusions – while it fits the data – is unsupported. Correlation is NOT cause. Assuming that the stats fits your theory of why players do what they do simply re-enforces your own bias.

        For example, he assumes that all Eve players shoot red crosses in equal amounts – even though his own method of ISK making is trading and never shooting red crosses. His reasoning for overlooking this obvious disconnect seems to be that he’s “unique” and “smarter than everyone else”.

        We’ve been having “Eve is Dying” threads ever since the server opened. All of them are dumb. This one has more effort put in, but its still dumb. After reading hundreds of them over the years, many of us simply don’t care about reading them any more.

  • ShamusMcFistycuffs

    If X happens then Y will I still see crow and ishtar blob?

  • eeeeeeeeeeeeee

    Could be that people that play the game for CCP and keep it going under the guise of “creating content” are doing the wrong thing. Making corpies move assests, then destroying them while they are moved by ganking them in the choke holds. Making them constantly register for the third party software over and over and over. having alts in every corp, so often you run into them in placid then kor azor and khanid. Why…… It turns out to be more of a job than a game.

  • Jay

    What a waste of good numbers, you should be ashamed of yourself. Also I thought you quit eve? :)

  • elnator

    every time you post you look dumber.

  • Maciej Simm

    for constructive criticism – at least dump your data into R and candify it in GGPlot2 or something.

    After all.. R is the pirates’ choice among other statistical modeling tools ‘;..;’

  • Maciej Simm

    for constructive criticism – at least dump your data into R and candify it in GGPlot2 or something.

    After all.. R is the pirates’ choice among other statistical modeling tools ‘;..;’

  • Lee Thrace

    Holy shit Goblin. You made my eyes bleed.

  • Kinis Deren

    My own analysis agrees that when null sec conflict peaks a lot of nullbears head to hi sec to continue their ISK making activities. When null sec conflict declines, the nullbears head back to doing sanctums, or whatever, in null. If you nerf hi sec income then the null bears may stay in null longer or might just not bother logging in when there’s a high level of null conflict. The current lull in null sec conflict and lower PCU would seem to support the latter conjecture, however, external factors also apply (the price of PLEX, AAA launches and so on) so it is hard to reach concrete conclusions.

    Check out the monthly figures since Dominion, and the two graphs below the table, here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhekrJ5PwCtPdGFMZGZfZFJCYUxyRHowX0tZbEJKWHc&usp=drive_web#gid=1

  • Kinis Deren

    My own analysis agrees that when null sec conflict peaks a lot of nullbears head to hi sec to continue their ISK making activities. When null sec conflict declines, the nullbears head back to doing sanctums, or whatever, in null. If you nerf hi sec income then the null bears may stay in null longer or might just not bother logging in when there’s a high level of null conflict. The current lull in null sec conflict and lower PCU would seem to support the latter conjecture, however, external factors also apply (the price of PLEX, AAA launches and so on) so it is hard to reach concrete conclusions.

    Check out the monthly figures since Dominion, and the two graphs below the table, here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhekrJ5PwCtPdGFMZGZfZFJCYUxyRHowX0tZbEJKWHc&usp=drive_web#gid=1

    • Ostrich Observer

      Nerfing high sec has done what to Concurrent users in the last YTD?

      You cannot force people to go where they don’t want to go. A player who has played for a couple years, and hasn’t embraced Low/Null Won’t suddenly decide, “yes, I’ll go where I don’t want to” They will say to themselves ” Meh Fuck Eve”

  • Azzataky

    Screw null sec, its not only fun place in EvE, there is in fact more fun place than null, come fight for caldari militia to low! :)

  • Azzataky

    Screw null sec, its not only fun place in EvE, there is in fact more fun place than null, come fight for caldari militia to low! :)

    • Kamar Raimo

      Come, get killed by Gallente militia in low – There, fixed that for you.

      • Azzataky

        Yea, right now thats it. :D But if caldari would get brains from theirs asses we could change that. Galls go in small groups all over the place and deplex everything. Caldari make one huge fleet and go for one system. Who wins, you know, I do too. :D

  • N3 WarHQ

    These numbers doesn’t mean much in the long run. EVE goes through different cycles, we got the 1 year cycle where the number of logins drops because of summer. Then we got another cycle that happens every time a major conflict has ended, this year those two cycles are pretty much synced. Then we got the every other year cycle where people get bored and look for other stuff.. its pretty much 2 years ago we had the big blowout from the Jita riots and those that came back after that they are now a little bored again and are doing other stuff. We also have the highest ever plex prices that forces a lot of people to keep their 3rd or 4th account unsubbed because they can’t afford it and that also affect the number of people logged in.

    But as soon as a major conflict happens again people will start login .. and i don’t think we are to far away from a major conflict between N3 and CFC, just waiting for the spark that will set the whole thing off.

  • oh uh durr huh

    yes but the thing is…
    THERE’S WAYYY TOOO MUCH ADVERTISING IS EN24!!!

  • http://www.eveonline.com/ hoodaticus

    As the dollar equivalent value of an hour of ratting drops further below minimum wage, people start getting jobs instead.

    • Hands off tha weave

      Let’s hope not, then EVE really will die.

  • Puchoco_Voluspa

    Well with 2 years of graduate econometrics on my back all I can say is ….

    fuck you goblin for reminding me of 2 years of graduate econometrics!

  • Puchoco_Voluspa

    Well with 2 years of graduate econometrics on my back all I can say is ….

    fuck you goblin for reminding me of 2 years of graduate econometrics!

  • Brolga

    Thanks for this research it makes a lot of sense.

  • MC

    Respect to the author to put that much of work into this article. Interesting read.

    Cheers,
    MC

  • Ostrich Observer

    Make new missions, Not necessarily higher payouts, but good, entertaining missions, and a LOT of them. Variety is the spice of life. The 57th time you do Damsel in Distress you lose your mind and/or stop logging in. (Your mileage may vary)

  • longusdongus

    Gob so much time wasted for what ? Get a job freak.

  • longusdongus

    Gob so much time wasted for what ? Get a job freak.

    • bob

      ^This guy didnt get a clue ;-)

    • bob

      ^This guy didnt get a clue ;-)