“Fitna (also fitnah or fitnat) (فتنة) is an Arabic word with connotations of secession, upheaval, and chaos. It is widely used in Arabic daily language as an adjective which refers to “causing problems between people” or attempting to create a chaotic situation that tests one’s faith. The exact translation of this word is often ambiguous for non-Arabic speakers.”
I can honestly say I have no leanings in favor of HBC or CFC. To me they are two very big sand castles that I’m going to enjoy watching crumble, each in their due time. That goes for pretty much every major alliance. If I had to be honest about the entities that I do like with little or no reserve, it would have to be Nulli Secunda. It takes quite a bit of strength to lose your region and come out of it still looking like a BAMF. It’s not something easily done. In any case, i’m sharing this because there will of course be hordes of screaming fan girls attempting to chastise me at the percieved notion that i’ve somehow questioned their mother’s virginity. For those a bit more intelligent I invite you to consider some possibilities with me. Nothing I right is set in stone and this is a mere spinning of buji red wine in a fancy glass.
I like history. I like it because it gives meaning to things, it creates symbols, it solidifies concepts, it concieves raison d’etre. I like it, not only because it happened, or whatever the perception is, but because it will happen. And it is with that sort of interest that i’ve viewed the growing tensions between the Goons (CFC) and TEST (HBC) with curiosity and interest. The best part of it all is, there a no good guys. It’s the eastern front as far as i’m concerned. But what I do like is seeing how each side maneuvers. I like seeing how each side justifies their crowd’s actions, how they get them excited to do what they do. I like seeing how people find purpose, in all matters of their life but for our purposes we’ll stick to Eve.
The first major maneuver to be noted in my book is the manner in which Mittens has handled the situation. Monty clearly wants to destroy Zagdul’s FA under Mitten’s nose without there being a reaction. Whatever the motivation of this little grudge match, it’s fairly irrelevant although of course Monty will try to use it as his rally call. Mitten’s reaction, rather than be positive or negative toward Mony, has been to do nothing. The effect of this is that Monty is made to look like a crazy man yelling in an elevator all by himself. The public image is that Mittens is trying to save the every day eve player on both sides from endless hours of sov grinding. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it’s the perfect system but hardly as tear inducing as he makes it out to be. Neither is Monty any more crazy (supposedly) than Mittens. If we want to get right down too it, both have immense obnoxious egos and an over stated sense of self importance. What Mittens has done a good job of is create and maintain a decent enough image for his community in his own cult of personality. Although Mittens can come off as tiringly full of himself, he has just enough charm to make it work for the average joe. Monty lacks even the basic charm and shares most of the negative traits Mittens has. Luckily they are not the only players on their respective sides.
A half a year ago if one asked me who would win in a match up between Goons and TEST, well of course TEST would be the losers. TEST alone vs AAA alone would have been a toss up let alone fighting against the entire CFC. The war in Tribute was a big eye opener seeing how the CFC matches up against a capable and motivated enemy in the form of ncdot and Black legion. Welp, because of falcon, and the rest is history. But what all honest people have to admit was that we saw the indomitable CFC, wealthy beyond measure, numberless, organized, motivated, stagger. If average people see their gods can bleed, they start thinking that maybe they aren’t gods afterall. And that’s the lesson taught in Tribute. This is what I had meant in my tribute article that dotbros wins are worth more.
But of course all that can be swept under the rug. I must be some closeted ncdot alt or some “pubbie” that got scammed into feverish buttrage prompting my stellar writing career in an attempt to discredit the CFC. Whatever the case may be, those points can be ignored, or at least they could be right up until the Battle of Asakai. I’m not going to repeat the same information seen elsewhere and bore to to tears with that. But what I will do is look to see who was on what side. What did the numbers look like? Look at the battlereport here on Jan 28th.
This has happened countless times in history but I am most often reminded of the relationship between the east Roman Empire and a small semi nomadic entity known as the House of Osman…later known as the Ottoman Empire. Although the Ottomans can not claim to outdo the Roman Empire in terms of length or innovation, the same cannot be said about TEST who too have grown from vassal to partner and now possibly successor bringing with them all the lessons of the mistakes the CFC has made and will make. While TEST has never matched up to the CFC’s level of organization and community, the trump card was always that if something somehow went terribly bad for the CFC, droves and droves of TEST hordes would blot out the sun on top of the CFCs already numerous members. It would be overkill^2.
Although it may be a bit early, we saw in Asakai (staged or not) who would align with who if a war broke out and what that result would be. In Asakai the HBC+allies group numbered almost 1600 while the CFC+allies didn’t even reach a thousand. And this was before the battle and the resulting 455.9 billion ISK loss by the CFC to HBC’s 32b. Now of course the CFC didn’t want that anyway. They’re spacerich. But it underlines a potential and very possible threat to their hegemony. Who else with a grudge against the CFC is going to come out of the woodwork? Suddenly Raiden buddying up with TEST makes a bit more sense. If it took months for the CFC to push dotbros out of Tribute, how would the CFC match up against dotbros + the entire HBC + anyone that’s ever wanted a piece of the goons? Of course for now the leaders are trying to calm everyone down. Monty has been hit on the nose with a rolled up news paper. Shadoo, who would change everyone’s mind about siding with TEST over CFC if Monty stepped out of line, could do so and the over all argument of “sov mechanics are bad blame CCP” is repeated again and again.
So what could happen now? Monty/HBC has been put in the dog house but Mittens has not forgotten that HBC has the ability to bite his hand. Right now it’s that scene in the mobster movie where the new up and coming guy is set on a course for the eventual showdown against his former mentor, Don so and so. For now I think the fun will continue with these sort of large scale battles for the purpose of Monty and Shadoo to see how many of these show fights they can win. If the right results come back, I believe the CFC is done for… but ONLY if Shadoo and Monty see eye to eye. HBC needs to keep their momentum up and continue to challenge the CFC in these “for fun” battles. They need to prop up your wins and gather favor with the other entities. Also HBC should consider making allies from the other members of the CFC. Giving EXE ultimaitums was a mistake and they should avoid rash and emotional reactions such as that that. Instead they should gain favor with GENTS, FC, or any entities within the CFC that perhaps do not see eye to eye with FA completely. Outside of the CFC, they should cultivate their relations with the the N3 coalition especially, as well as Black Legion. Anyone else of relevance will follow with them.
Mittens would be smart to keep a wedge between the two while also keeping in mind that anyone intelligent within his coalition also sees the potential overturn of his hegemony and may consider their options as well. Subvert and distract. Tribal Alliance is an entity that can be easily disrupted. Keep in mind that N3 is a potential ally for the CFC as well. Nulli, did after all lose their space to the HBC. They should strength inter-coalition ties. Remind them that Goons stood up for FA and that coalition unity and community is something important and treasured. It doesn’t hurt to remember the Russians either. The CFC has a capable logistical arm and when this war happens, because it will happen, if it is long and drawn out, logistics will win in the end.
Lastly, I’m sure everyone is asking themself, why the hell does this guy think that this war will happen? All the pieces are there. Look into any Greek tragedy and you’ll see. The son needs to kills his father in order to be king. TEST will go to war with the CFC this year or they’ll be forever stigmatized by others and themselves (although won’t admit it) as a pet of the Goons. Mittens is not too stupid to see this, although he may be too arrogant. The question is if Monty can step up and become something more or if he’ll be content with simply being the king’s jester.
- Seraph IX Basarab