This is no kind of analysis on the current diplomatic situation between the Honeybadger Coalition [HBC] and the Clusterfuck Coalition [CFC].
Mainly I’m surprised that people are surprised that there’s conflict brewing between these two coalitions.
That the HBC and the CFC would eventually bears arms against each other seemed inevitable back when Test Alliance made a big deal about getting out from under the shadow of Goonswarm.
There comes a time in the life of every young boy, when they want to be defined on their own terms, not always in comparison or relation to the parent. That time came for Test during their war in the south, their takeover of Delve, Querious and Period Basis. They’d outgrown their Goonswarm pet status.
So when Test declared they were no longer of the CFC, that they were standing on their own as the HBC, people didn’t quite believe it. And even as the conflicts and conquests of the CFC and the HBC became separate, people still saw them as close allies. One coalition inexorably tied to the other. The CFC was certainly not the HBC, but people continued to see the HBC as just an extension of the CFC.
The only sure way to break those invisible bonds is via some grand rebellion. The more that Test Alliance argues against old perceptions, the old ties back to Goonswarm, the more inevitable conflict has to become. The only sure way to convince people that these are now two distinct entities is for war to come between them.
Goonswarm is always going to think Test will need them. That no matter how hard they try to distance themselves from the relationship, they rely on the knowledge that Goonswarm is there, waiting to bail them out.
Test is convinced it can stand on its own. It’s powerful enough and large enough that the batphone can be disconnected permanently.
One of the two groups is right. It’s not really about convincing the masses outside the HBC, it’s about convincing the HBC itself. “Are we really free from Goonswarm’s chains?”
Conflict wipes the slate clean of misconceptions. Or it makes visible the obvious truth.
I’m sure Test hasn’t gone out of its way to create conflict. But some small slight that would have been solved lickity-split just a year ago, today it’s a wound that cannot heal. The psychology of wanting to escape the shadow of the parent is going to fester the slightest scrape into a full-blown wound.
The question is not will the HBC and CFC come to serious blows, but when will it happen. Today’s squabble between Test and Fatal Ascension might resolve itself, but that just opens the door to a larger squabble tomorrow.
Both coalitions are in a period of peace. There’s little for the CFC to do up north. There’s little for the HBC to do down south. Conflict is likely sooner rather than later. Under a period of boredom, the smallest slight can escalate.
You can read more of Poetic Stanziel’s opinions at his Poetic Discourse blog.