and if you note there has been a huge influx of plex, but demand has remained steady, last night alone i spoke to 6 different ppl all running 3-4 accounts, all high sec all miners, looking at forums ppl are overjoyed about the mackinaw's and thier yield,

If they had the money would they less often run after the ISK, but could play EVE in a different way. Each month do they need to dedicate time to making ISK with no real choice if they want to avoid paying for EVE. Some of them spend their weekends mining afk over tens of hours only to get enough ISK in to pay for the next month, while others are having a blast in large fights and destroy large amounts of ISK at the same time.

there has been a shift and mining has increased, ore prices have not shifted because if it loers ppl cant plex and thus dont mine. theres a new equilibrium forming there accounting for a small fraction of plexers (but plexers that were not there before)

macs are not ISK faucets. People mine, sell ore for ISK from other players. If there is too much supply, price falls. Look at the isotope market and how it collapsed over last month or so. I'm a little surprised the same didn't happen in mineral market yet, although high ends like zydrine and megacyte collapsed despite of drone droppings.

* unable to pay for game (I suspect very small minority)
* unwilling to spend more $$$ on the game

I'm squarely in the latter corner. I haven't paid for Eve for years (since 32-day GT existed and cost was 120m ISK). As price of PLEX went up and CCP changed with war mechanics, I simply abandoned some alts. So yes, PLEX prices are elastic, but to make EVE impossible to pay with PLEX, the price would need to go past about 2B ISK. And by that time, there will be other problems quite evident.

However, the supply side is what I believe is truly driving the price. There is simply not enough plex coming into the game to satisfy existing demand. I know that sounds simple – supply lags demand and price increases. But all things being equal, the simple explanation is most often correct. One would think that with plex above 600 that this would induce more players to buy isk with real money, this leading to an increase in supply in game. But given the current economic conditions in the real world, coupled with (perhaps) fewer players looking to plex that shiny new super, the supply just isn't materializing.

A tournament takes up maybe 500 to 2000 plex. That is a rounding error in a 1.2 million plex market. So my point is that a one (or two) time shock that small will have no meaningful long term effect on the plex market. It may have a small effect for one or two days but not on the long term. Economics 101 my friend I can recommend you a nice school.

at the end of the day less ppl are buying plex to sell for isk… subs are cheaper. and there is more ISK in EDEN so prices will fly and when macks are fixed and FW gets the nerf bat there will be less ISK and the market will crash.

already the news hype has increased the PLEX availible on the market as of last night 2211 plex for sale vs the 3572 or so offers to buy, slowing inflation, but certainly prices will rise again before the next expantion then the market will even out again (at a higher price, plex only ever gains due to cocsistant demand)

Are they capable of making up their own agenda?

You are not thinking four dimensionally, Marty.