Something, something, something, Gallente ice.
Market Discussion: Gallente Ice – Eve Online Trade Hubs rejoice as speculation accrues.
King Goon Mittani has made some rather impressive claims over the last week about the ability of goons to manipulate the market. It seems a scheme was hatched to gank high sec ice miners. Specifically Gallente ice miners, as they produce the ice demanded most by ungoonie players. Gallente ice is obviously demanded by Nyx pilots. The Nyx being “the” super carrier of choice for the super blob(s). Gallente ice is also used by moon goo mining towers as well as certain carebearing towers.
Almost everyone who cares remotely about Gallente ice has already seen a version of this graph:
There are several incredibly shocking things to point out on this graph. To get a better view of what happened, let’s condense the timeline to the last month.
Let’s start with the bar graph on the bottom. Two spikes, the first began on the 9/20 and tapered off on the 9/22, well before the ice interdiction became public knowledge. In the real world, people would be screaming “insider trading” if they saw this graph. This is Eve. We don’t need no stinking trading regulations here. So, obviously, there were a number of goons who began buying up the market prior to the campaign becoming public knowledge. Who they were is beyond my investigative capabilities. Needless to say, some people with insider information made a killing. This caused an early bump, likely from people cleaning out the available sell orders, lasted roughly two weeks. At the beginning of the month, there was another volatile trading day for Oxygen Iso, greater than the initial bump. This is roughly when it became common knowledge to the average goon. Amusingly enough, the initial insiders likely were selling to the general goon for a nice profit. Within the day, what was happening got out (like any major alliance in Eve, there’s 1 spy for every 10 members), and others who thought the goons might be able to cause a dent in the market likely jumped on the market as well. Volatility has fallen off since then.
The next most important thing are the vertical yellow lines, showing the daily spread with the median price indicated by a dot. The sell orders being the top part and the buy orders being the bottom, while the middle dot is the 100% mark people see referenced when buying and selling. The closer the median price is to the bottom of the line, the more speculators are betting the price will rise, the reverse indicate the price is coming back down. As you can see, for the last two weeks of last month, speculation was that the price would rise (as those previously mentioned insiders bought up the sell orders and put the isos back on the market at a higher price). Buy and flip. On Friday, 9/30, the general goon and anyone who heard about it from goon alt spies got in on the market. As you see, the median price was right in the middle of the split (a huge split). So, there was clearly a lot of uneducated speculation that the price would go to the moon. Meanwhile, the early speculators were dumping onto the market, keeping the median price relatively stabilized. The next day, there were still people trying to get in on the action, marking the max buy position for this bubble. People kept marking up the sell orders higher, as the people late to the game kept trying to ride the market up. The next two days after that, you can see stockpiles being cleaned out again, pulling the median price down again. For the next week after that, you can see the price totter as stockpiles pull the price down against speculators attempting to push the price up. Around the 8th, it becomes apparent that the stockpiles being dumped onto the market are drying out again as the median price drops to the bottom of the split and the price begins to skyrocket again. It is likely this is due to the Mittani starting this thread in k.com.
So, was this nothing more than goons reigniting the speculator fires by trying to reach out to the ignorant to jump into the market so they could get out before the bubble burst? A good question. On the 13th, you can see the market waver again. Another fortuitous marketing push, courtesy of some cool videos, CAOD, reddit, kugu, and various other forum spam propped the bubble back up to put the price in rocket mode once again today. Such as this post.
The red and green line graphs show an upward trend, but the volatility is not there and the split and median price look uncertain. How much of this price is hype and how much is cold, hard supply and demand?
Whatever the case, it is clear that goons have killed off a lot of miners.
And the prices at the Trade Hubs are… high.
So, what do you think? how long until this bubble burst?
-Bagehi – Destroyer of Finance
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