[spoiler show="Editor's Note"]He is one of the most active bloggers in EVE and got some good insights which goes beyond the typical EN24 scope. We are proud to present selected stories from this magnificent internet spaceship blogger. If you would like to read more we invite you to visit his blog here.
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All Curves Aren’t.
A little over a month ago, I wrote a blog post called “Not all curves are pretty“. If you take away the player guides that I write for EVE and for Global Agenda (both of which are far and away the most-read things on this blog), it’s the most-viewed blog post I’ve ever written. It swept through the EVE blogs, news sites, various alliance forums, and even hit a site or two in the external media.
The post itself covered some mathematical analysis of the average number of players logged into EVE Online over a five-year period starting in March 2006. The source of the data was the API output of eve-offline.net, a website that’s intended to help players determine if EVE is itself off-line or if it’s just their own network connection. Still, the site does periodic downloads of the active logged-in player count from the EVE API. That data was available for download… right up until not long after my post hit. These days, that part of the site says the API data is “temporarily unavailable.”
That was a bit of a problem because at the end of “Curves”, I stated that the trend-line for the average users logged into EVE at that time was on a sharp downward trend and that it’d be interesting to look at it in another month to see if that trend continued or stabilized. Since then, I’ve gotten numerous requests for an update, an update that’s been difficult due to lack of data.
Well, in the last few days, I’ve received the data. This time, I’m going to keep my sources to myself, but I am convinced of their accuracy. Both sources provided me with data, and their data not only tracks with the previous data that I used to build the previous chart, but with each other. I have no reason to suspect at this time that they got their data from the same source, and the data looks consistent, so I’m going to go ahead and run with it.
I dropped the new data into the previous spreadsheet that I built for “Curves”. I then decided to build a new spreadsheet and normalize the data. This involves taking out the data drop-outs and discrepancies caused by EVE patch days. Instead, I’m going to stick to full 24-hour EVE days where full data is available (with a couple of exceptions here and there). That didn’t adjust past math too much, but did make some differences to the 2011 numbers. My updated spreadsheet with the raw data reflecting this is also available if you want to do your own analysis.
Here’s the updated “all-time” chart (click to embiggen all charts):
But that’s a bit tough to see, so I also generated a chart for 2011 only:
Don’t get too excited over the dramatic-looking curve. Note that the bottom line of the X-axis is 26,000 players logged in, not zero. Significant events that have taken place in 2011 are surprisingly easy to see on this graph, I was pleased to see. You can see the typical post-patch dip for both Incursion Phase 3 and the “Sanctum nerf patch” released in the first week of April. Alliance Tournament IX is easy to spot, as are the Jita riots. It was a bit tougher to understand what happened in EVE on March 2 that caused the big spike there, until I started doing incursions myself. After that, it was easy.
For those wondering what the percentage in EVE’s growth was for +60 days after Incarna’s release? Before I normalized it, it was up a bit. After normalization, the true number is -0.2%. The normalized +30 day number changes from the -1.8% I published on July 20 to +0.1%. In short, either there’s been no growth from Incarna, or any growth has been neutralized by unsubs caused by this summer’s dramas.
As a matter of fact, what struck me the most about the new, normalized chart, was the 30-day rolling average for the last 30 months.
- That number on February 22, 2009: 29,113.
- The same number on August 22, 2011, 30 months later: 29,841.
The short spike of new players after Incursion was released aside, that’s a difference of 2.4%. In 30 months.
That’s not a curve. That’s a flat-line. “Stagnant” doesn’t even begin to cover this. Bet you money, Hilmar has charts that looks very much like these two on his office wall somewhere, right now. It’s got to be one of the biggest things on his mind, if not the biggest.
Assuming the big spike in logged-in players after Incursion dropped was old EVE players coming back to check out all the changes and to spend their Learning SPs (something that’s implied by a lot of forum posts from the devs, CSM Summit minutes, and other sources), those players seem to have turned right around and left again. Incursion did not draw them back to stay. Incarna is doing nothing to bring them back a second time.
I believe even more strongly that the winter expansion is “sink or swim” time for CCP. It must succeed.
EDIT (31/Aug/2010): A couple of comments have already come in saying “2.4% isn’t flat!” I wouldn’t normally respond to that level of coherent thought, but this kind of comment really deserves special attention. So just for the people who don’t think 2.4% over 30 months isn’t flat, here’s a graph of 2.4% growth over 30 months:
Decide for yourself.
EDIT (31/Aug/2010): Another version, for those who want to accuse me of manipulating the first graph. Same data, going back to the beginning, 30-day rolling average, six month slices. You tell me where it’s flat and where it isn’t.
Again, decide for yourself. But if you want to argue with this one, you might want to join me in a place I call “reality.”
About the Author: Playing EVE Online for more than four years, play under the main Ripard Teg. Currently afflicted with the much maligned “Bitter-Vet” disease, Ripard Teg travels through the New Eden landscape in search of a cure… and hopefuly a good adventure to share with his readers.
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The curve is flat. Maybe just because the market is saturated with MMOs? EVE could live forever but it can't grow forever
First rule of business
To grow is to succeed. To remain stagnant is to die. Every business's goal is to grow. If you remain where you are 2 years ago then it is considered that the business is no longer successful and on the verge of failure.
There are no players online anymore to comment on this article.
What I find most intriguing is that all the huffing and puffing about Incarna led to virtually no change in the active players curve thus far. I'm curious if and when the aftermath of the Jita riots, NEX store, Fearless newsletter, and distaste for the state of Nullsec will appear in these numbers.
I'd also be VERY curious to see what the subscription numbers are in comparison with these charts, and see if many of those claiming to be leaving are the long-term AFKers who are finally unsubscribing, while the daily active players are continuing their journey's in EVE.
Actually, come to think of it, I'm much more interested in the subscription numbers – something that isn't discussed at all here.
Honestly, the problem with Incarna is that it didn't add anything useful to the game. "Oh? So i can walk around in a station now, take longer to load upon docking and take longer to do the things I used to do while docked? Awesome." I loaded a station interior once to check it out, then un-checked the box so i could dock in a decent time.
Nullsec, well…that's a different beast. What we're seeing is troubling. One super-coalition has taken up over half of all nullsec. Two other super-coalitions are each holding a quarter and one of them seems to be on an inevitable path to destruction by the largest super-coalition. Null is stagnating, and at this rate, we're going to be down to TWO political powers.
(con't)
(con't from first post)
That is bad for players. It means less PvP options (fleet fits), less small-gang PvP (since the big groups roll around in blobs), and let's not forget the fact that when two super-coalitions actually fight, the game becomes UNPLAYABLE (once again, because of the concentration of players into blobs). I know 88% of players don't live in null (let's be honest, a decent chunk of those are 0.0 players' alts), but if nullsec doesn't get a HUGE damn shake-up, the endgame of EVE is dead.
The only sov-holding people in null will be the DRF (and their renters and pets), and the Goons (and their pets and B-team allies). All that will be left is NPC 0.0 and low-sec (which, let's be honest, is going to be overrun with super-caps once the wars are over and all of the super-coalitions' super pilots start to get bored and look for new targets).
The entire galaxy dominated by the huge ships of a single evil empire. Where have I heard that space opera plot before?
Be the Rebel (maybe even an alliance of rebels), and throw off those chains of oppression. Use smart hit and run, guerrilla-type tactics. Hope they build gigantic space station after space station with a single glaring design flaw that you can exploit with a single fighter.
THIS!!!
The nerf to supers should take the form of a frig that is able to target a critical point and 1shot it, but has roughly the HP etc of a drone.
lol, its definately one idea for supers.
Honestly though, super-capital ships aren't the problem, and the "super-nerf" in all honesty probably isn't going to be the divine gift from the icelandic gods that some people are hoping it will be. In all liklihood, it'll be something minor that isn't going to do shit when supercarriers are dropped in groups of 50+ and titans in groups of 20+
The REAL change they need to make is to sov-mechanics themselves. The entire system needs to change. Dominion sov-mechanics encourage massive, centrallized fleets, going system by system shooting stationary objects with massive HP counts. The mechanics themselves need to change, to encourage multiple task-forces, and to make a single massive blob useless. Instead of one huge 500v500 unplayable battle, we should have multiple 100v100 battles in different solar systems. It would help actually make sov-warfare more interesting, more fast-paced, and most importantly, PLAYABLE.
It doesn't really matter what CCP do to limit numbers, blobbers will always blob. I guess we could look to Incursions for how numbers are limited there, but to compare PVE content against sov warfare is a bit like comparing own-brand cola to homebrew moonshine…
Im not talking about limiting numbers. Im talking about completely changing the mechanics, spreading sov-warfare out with multiple objectives in different systems/constellations running simultaneously.
The fact is, modern sov-wars are little more than Napoleonic warfare. Two sides like up in massive numbers and shoot till one side loses. There's absolutely no disadvantage to bringing the most numbers possible, since you're all in one place shooting at one target at a time.
That's what needs to change. Mechanics need to be put into place that encourages real strategy and tactics, and makes massive blobs a liability instead of an advantage. Blobs are big, inflexible, unwieldy things. The only reason they work is because the mechanics support them. If you change the mechanics you can break up the blobs, and actually have sov-warfare be playable, and maybe even fun for a change.
Ah, so you're saying CCP should remove a USP, or make lag worse! Gotcha ;D
Im not saying CCP should do anything to punish the players into breaking up the blobs on their own. That would be stupid.
Im saying that the sov-warfare system itself should change. The Domion system has been a failure, and only lead to bigger blobs and more lag. There need to be new mechanics in place to take sov, so that instead of a massive, unplayable 800-man battle in one system, there are multiple 50-100 man fights across a constellation, or multiple constellations.
It would encourage more tactics, it would let more people get the chance to FC, and it would actually let sov-battles be playable. CCP will never have the technology to make the big fights playable, so the sov-mechanics need to be changed to break up that single big fight into many smaller ones.
CCP won't do it though, since their big "Epic 1000-man fleet-fights" are a big selling point for the game. Shame no one learns that those battles are completely unplayable until its too late.
this
The absence of the usual post-expansion peak for incarna isn't really worrying since actually it is a Beta and everybody knows it. It will be much more worrying if after the release of Establishments (a glimpse of multiplayer gameplay) there are no spikes.
How many of those losses are banned botters? How many of the losses are due to a weak economy?
Well let's be honest here: Incarna is probably the first "expansion" in gaming history, never mind Eve, to remove content! Seriously, I doubt many people have the interior view enabled any more judging by the vast amount of love shown to A DOOR – so not only do we not have a working out-the-pod experience but ship spinning was removed too?
What has Incarna added? Let's not factor in the CQ, which as I mentioned a lot of people turn off. I seriously don't think shit all has been added…
…and then before this there was Tyrannis and cruddy PI, and more recently Incursion which was largely PVE only. When people sit on their computers and cry about how Apocrypha was the last true expansion to Eve, I am massively tempted to agree – and that was released over 2 years ago now.
You stupid $£%£$%^£$ do you think your curves will save you?
They saved lots of actresses and singers without talent.
First off ya'll are looking at this from a one dimensional perspective. CCP needs to grow – and that may or may not include the growth of the EVE player base. Remember a little thing called Dust514?
EVE is a product that has matured and my guess is that CCP is betting on Dust514 to regain the growth trajectory. It's already evident as the effort put into EVE releases are 1) window dressing and 2) focus on character content (in line with the FPS dust motif) – not gameplay. CCP has a finite amount of resources and It's clear where they are not investing them. Expect EVE to go into life support mode with minimal development in the coming years while greater emphasis is placed upon dust and other products coming out of the CCP funnel.
what you fail to realize is, Dust 514 is a console shooter. It will sell big probably at first, And after the first month its sales continue to dribble in for a year or so (Next line of playstation's already been slated.. PS3 will be dead soon.) It's not p2p, It's a one time purchase (roughly the same as a 3month sub)
Console shooters like that in general usually only last 4-6 months as 'popular' and then they are very much on the downfall. Dust 514 is unlikely to be any different and CCP doesnt have the power some of the bigger titles do (Call of duty for example) where they can release 2-3 different games every year.
My point was that EVE is not the only potential revenue stream for CCP. True dust is a one time purchase but a) you can't pay with it in in game money so it pure hard revenue. B) if it becomes popular it can spawn a franchise resulting in additional revenue streams. As CCP expands it's product offerings I would expect less and less focus on EVE development efforts – EVE is a very mature product with a niche customer base. Expansion into China is going to help extend it's lifespan but I have little hope that CCP will put any heroic effort into making the game better – it's a bad bet.
Doesn't matter if YOU buy your PLEX with ISK, someone had to buy this PLEX with real currency for it to be created.
All PLEXes are bought with real money wether they are resold or not.
Somethings of note:
0.0 weight:
The people in 0.0 – > the twelve – very often have alts, tend to be older, often have more money and/or plex buying ability. CCP sees this in a way we do not, so the weight of accounts from 0.0 is greater than those 12%.
Bittervets
SC and titan accounts are basically "captive" accounts, due to the chars being unable to do anything worthwhile. Its CCP's way of forcing committed players to pay even more. They know the numbers who are active, and the main accounts from those players, so they see the trends.
New blood:
They are failing big time at player retention; the sandbox has too much cat poop and a newbie has a very high probability of stepping on it within the 1st month. With all the crap they put in, they haven't really worked hard on new-account-enticement and account retention.
WYSIWYG
The interface still sucks ass big time, its not polished. Incarna made it slower.
High end commitment
I hear horror stories of WoW choreographed raids that take a long time, and when you log on to do something you gotta be ready to stay on for a while, but EVE has a level of chore-duty which is just plain unfriendly and not enough eye candy to compensate the time wasted waiting for a fleet. You can't even be checking your shit and sorting it out as you must be in place.
Bounce
There's no bouncy elves, and EVE single-handedly lowers the overall % of girls in MMOs by adding a 0.01% to the tab.
All of this helps make the curve as flat as its denizen's chests.
> WYSIWYG
> The interface still sucks ass big time, its not polished. Incarna made it slower.
This. Very much this. The learning curve for just the basics turn away a lot of potential players. A lot of the UI tools appear (or actually are) too complicated. Some recent additions have been better, but they would gain as many players with a UI redesign as they would from Incarna.
I recently tried EVE. I didn't find the interface difficult to figure out. Sure, its compact but considering the amount of information displayed, its pretty good. One of the reasons that other games UI appears streamlined is because they only have one or two variables to display.
I don´t actually care about the interface being difficult to understand and use. But what I do care about is the fact, that their latest patch made it buggy as hell. Buggy like in random windows sticking to the cursor, moving around with it, even though they were never picked up (and not even close to the cursor). Buggy like in window close buttons (x in the corner) disappearing randomly making it a series of crappy experiment to close a stupid window. Buggy like in stacked windows changing order on every undock and so on…
Maybe CCP should start hiring actual programmers and more than that… testers… so they can actually start fixing their shit. Current state of the GUI is: you can´t show it to a friend without being ashamed admitting that you´re playing a game that has more bugs than features just because you´re addicted to it…
>Bounce
>There's no bouncy elves, and EVE single-handedly lowers the overall % of girls in MMOs by adding >a 0.01% to the tab.
>
>All of this helps make the curve as flat as its denizen's chests.
Sounds like someone is mad that EvE violates australian decency laws O.o;;
Ship spinning << << << watching bouncies.
What do you mean, does EVE violate ANY decency laws? It looks like a PG 13 to me or something.
needs more boobs, and cocks, becuase lets face it, 99%of the people that play eve are old or mature enough to not care/enjoy it.
It will be interesting to see what Dust 514 does to the curve. Assuming Dust is a decent game and it takes off on the PS3, it could be Eve will gain players as a halo effect.
Unfortunately, CCP seems to be unable to articulate their vision for building a complete MMO into the future. They have some long-term plans (nullsec might be going in the right direction), some immediate plans (opening up stations), but are missing both the grand vision and the middle-term keep-the-players-happy kind of features.
Ehh, I think Dust is going to have a tough time, honestly. With Resistance 3 and Space Marine coming out soon, the "multiplayer action-game" niche is going to be pretty well filled up on the PS3. They should have kept it multi-plat, at least it would have broadened the potential audiance. I really can't help but think that Dust is just going to come and go with a whimper.
The problem with CCP is that they got it in their heads that EVE constantly needs new features, instead of actually trying to make EVE itself a better, more balanced game. The fact that Incarna was so much higher on their priorities than actually fixing balance issues (super-caps, moons, etc), or changing sov-mechanics so that they don't ENCOURAGE massive blobs that make the game unplayable. You know, thinks that actually make the game more fun for the people who already play it.
I can't help but feel that CCP is more concerned with trying to lure in new players, than with making the actual game they have better. Bringing in a bunch of new people doesn't mean shit if the game isn't fun. Null-sec will be down to two political powers within 6 months and sov-warfare is only slightly more fun than mining or belt-ratting.
EVE is a computer world. They're going to throw out DUST on the console. This means the ready-made audience is not getting it except in the cases where it does have a console.
Besides, you can get people from the consoles, but can you KEEP people who are mostly console players?
Very interesting data, thanks for putting that together.
Could this be evidence that is contrary to CCP's stance of "New content brings more subscriptions than fixing bugs"? Perhaps they could introduce an addendum to that of "…but leaving bugs for too long brings stagnation via player frustration".
CONFRIMIGN CURVES IS FLAT
ALSO DO NOT TO BE PANICIGN.
ALSO DUSK 90201 IS NOT ONLY SAVIORS. ALSO SOON WILL BE ABEL TO BE PLAY VAMPIERS.
ALSO THESE WILL BE TO SAVIGN EVE.
(
KEEP UP THE GOOD POASTIGN!
Id like to see how many of these accounts are getting deleted because ccp is catching bots in all honesty
Only enough to keep up the PR image that they are "combating use of bots". At the end of the day, these accounts give them money, killing off accounts is killing off their own income.
tinfoil itch must?
hohoho… not since plex came into the picture
The bulk of USTZ players are looking foward to release's such as Diablo 3 & Guild Wars, etc this winter. Compound the fact that most Eve players are pissed off as is. CCP better get off there ass's and fix this game or they almost certainly will be looking at bankruptcy in 2012.
CCP is a business and they want your money not your input or your Opinions.
Thing is that if they want a player's money, they have to consider that player's input and opinions to make sure they are providing the product that the player wants.
If a player's opinion is "I don't care about Space Barbie, I'm sick of buggy software and not getting decent content, I'm taking my money elsewhere", CCP will (or should) care. Opinions lead to the spending of consumer dollars.
I think its been demonstrated that caring what your customers think runs contrary to CCPs culture, and the Icelandic culture as a whole from what I have read.
Customers? What do you mean, customers? You mean the visa numbers something punches into your system and who sometimes vanish back again for unknown reasons?
Where on earth could all this cynicism be coming from!?!
In looking at your analysis, it would appear that you neglected to observe or note the cyclical nature of EVE playership. Due to clearly observable seasonal variation (Fig1), to run the correct analysis you need to run a 12 month comparison in growth levels. The 30 month comparison you somewhat randomly focused on in your analysis incorrectly alters your conclusions because you are comparing the crest against the trough of a clearly repeating wave system.
I think this is working as intended.
Almost dev comments, blog posts and most forum trolls are strongly in favor of policies that greatly discourage new players and especially PvEers. Which is part of its niche appeal. But CCP has attracted about all the Space Sociopaths they can. And you really can't change the focus of an ongoing MMO.
I think CCP is wise to recognize that if they want growth, it is going to need to come from consoles or vampires or something besides EVE and that is what they should be investing their money in.
in one paragraph you say you cant change the focus, but your next paragraph says they are going to and they should… ???
plois oiksplain…
All MMOs décline in their subscription after like 1 year… Except WoW or… Eve. Come on be honest, compare what can be compared, how many non-free-to-play MMOs are gaining subscription ?
You seem to imply that CCP is some kind of failure because they don't "stagnate" ? Every game dies, Eve doesn't !
I meant to write "because they stagnate"
You can read charts as you want to.. i see a number of big dips during the life spawn of EVE. As the player base gets bigger the dips always gets bigger.
Is it hard to get new blood into a game that been playing for 7 years? Hell yes!
What i think we are seeing is generation shift. A big generation of bittervets are about to leave this game for different reasons.. most likely they are not in school anymore or they got a life of some sort and are cutting down on their accounts and online time. They been looking for a good reason to leave and when Incarna came + the drama around it a lot of them decided that it was time to leave.
Question is..will this generation be replaced by a new one..
Well i see a couple of problems with that.. we still have a large amount of very high skilled players in game and in 0.0. What got these now high skilled players hooked to the game aren't really available to the newer players.. what do i mean with that? Well when they went out to 0.0 and created the powerblocs we see now they had a lot of fun.. there wasn't 1000 supers to be dropped in your head if you tried to do something. This isn't available for the new players and therefore i don't think they will see EVE as being fun in the same way as the old players used to do. This will lead to them not being hooked to the game in the same way as the old players..and that is bad for EVE.
Next problem are the Russians.. i don't mean to offend anyone.. but this game is being taken over by Russians..and their RMT empire and bots. I'm in a alliance that are being run by Russians..and their playstyle is a lot different then the playstyle of EU/US players. RMT aren't limited to Russians alliances but the scale of it is a lot bigger. I say.. create a Russian server like the one in China. Let them run its RMT crap over there and i think we can have a new life into EVE. Right now DRF (Russians) are steamrolling 0.0 and sucking the life out of 0.0. With the RMT money they have they buy the services of the high skilled players in the game to crush all others. When DRF are done i think even more players will quit the game, mostly EU/US players as we don't like how the new EVE is looking with Russian control over it.
So what i want to say with this is.. don't put all the blame on CCP. They done a awesome work with EVE online. Its still a great game. They done some mistakes, but we have a lot to-do with what happens to the game and why people join or quit this game then CCP does.
I think that this is another article by a bittervet looking for a reason to quit and giving more bittervets a reason to quit.
botters want to kill eve, they ll win eve
CCP alow for botting 
so lets make some isk for new computers etc 
Great Post ..
What I would personally find interesting is a survey conducted somewhere of how many ppl do have Incarana activated and how many people don't. Personally, I have it activated. Does it excite me that much atm – no not overly. Does it make me want to quit the game – no not really either. I'm ambilevent if anything at this point, I can still see the potential and my PC runs it fine (2009 lvl gaming pc at best) so I have it enabled. I personally suspect that if you surveryed a proper cross section of the player base you would find Incarna usage is about 50/50, if someone reckons those numbers are way off then lets see some evidence to prove it!
Do we really need one of those in every article riptard posts to EN24 now?? The man doesn't need an introduction for every post.
Yup, it's like the samurai pizza cats, stuff gets repeated over and over until it gains certain campiness
dont forget 30 okt, the day alot of eve players quit cause battelfield 3 comes out
Did anyone think about the idea that Eve may actually not be stagnating in terms of playerbase, but actively decreasing?
Most high SP players will have more than one account, most have 2-3. Most will dual box at all times.
As the number of high SP players steadily increases with time, the amount of people dual boxing probably also increases. Meaning, the total amount of players are actually dwindling, not being kept at the same level.
I doubt CCP wants to release info about the above, but this is probably what is happening.